The 7-7-0 Tennessee Titans host the 1-12-1 Houston Texans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans have a point spread of -3 with a money line of -160. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 35.5 points.
Houston Texans (3)
Tennessee Titans (-3)
Tennessee Titans Offense:
The Titans are coached by Mike Vrabel who has been with the team since 2018. They have a current season record of 7-7-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike Vrabel is no different.
Ryan Tannehill is the quarterback for the Titans. The 34-year-old Texas A&M alum entered the league in 2012 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 12 games and thrown for 2536 yards with a completion percentage of 65.2 percent. Ryan Tannehill has thrown 13 touchdowns despite 6 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 94.6.
His main target will be Robert Woods. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 30-year-old target. He has made 40 receptions to date on 72 targets, a catch percentage of 55.6%, for a total of 418 yards. Robert Woods is averaging 10.5 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Ryan Tannehill will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Titans running game is lead by the 28-year-old Derrick Henry. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 296 carries and rushed for 1303 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 93.1 YPG, a number that you know Mike Vrabel would love to see him exceed in this game. Derrick Henry has 12 touchdowns this season and 5 fumbles.
Overall, the Tennessee Titans offense ranks 21 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -4.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 16 with a Passing DVOA of 9.9%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -5.6%, ranking #19 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.676 with 25 Red Zone touchdowns in 37 attempts.
Tennessee Titans Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Titans have a Defense DVOA of 1.00%, ranking 16 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #28 at 14.10% and they’ll need them to show up against Kyle Allen. The Mike Vrabel-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 14.10%, #1 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Randy Bullock who has made 12 of 15 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 48 yards. The Tennessee Titans fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Houston Texans Offense:
The Texans are on the road for this one. Lovie Smith’s squad is 1-12-1 this season after going 4-13 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Houston Texans have a betting line of 3 or you could bet them straight up at 140.
26-year-old Kyle Allen will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2018 after playing his college days at Texas A&M. Kyle Allen has a quarterback rating of 60.6 on 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 416yards, a completion percentage of 59.0.
Dameon Pierce is the lead back for the Texans running game. The 22-year-old has taken 220 carries and rushed for 939 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 72.2 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 4 fumbles.
On the passing front, Kyle Allen will look to target Brandin Cooks against the Lovie Smith defense. Brandin Cooks has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 71 times and made 44 catches for 520 yards. Brandin Cooks has a catch percentage of 62.0% and his yards per reception is 11.8.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Houston Texans offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -26.8% which ranks at number 31 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -20.5%, the number 31 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 32 with a Rush DVOA total of -25.4%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 18 Red Zone touchdowns on 39 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.462.
Houston Texans Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Ka’imi Fairbairn to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 55 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Ka’imi Fairbairn has made 25 field goals on 55 attempts, a field goal percentage of 92.6%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Texans with a Defensive DVOA of 4.40% which ranks at 21/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #28 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 14.10%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 8.20% DVOA which ranks at #1.
- Ryan Tannehill QB Rating of 94.6 vs. Houston Texans Pass DVOA Defense of -20.5%
The Texans have 10 interceptions this year and 31 sacks. They are allowing 24.6 points per game.
- Derrick Henry vs. Houston Texans number 32 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.9 yards per carry against the the Houston Texans and 167.5 per game.
- Kyle Allen QB Rating of 60.6 vs. Tennessee Titans #28 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Titans defense has allowed 20.9 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 36 times and picked him off 11 times.
- Dameon Pierce vs. Tennessee Titans -23.60% DVOA Rush Defense
The Titans are giving up 80.8 YPG on 3.6 per carry thus far this season.
Texans/Titans Bettting Stats:
Texans Against the spread: 6-7-1
Texans Over/Under: 6-8-0
Titans Against the spread: 8-5-1
Titans Over/Under: 5-9-0
The best bet is Tennessee Titans -3 and Under 35.5.