Bills vs. Commanders: Week 3 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 September 2023

The 2-0-0 Washington Commanders host the 1-1-0 Buffalo Bills at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. The Washington Commanders have a point spread of +6 with a money line of -110. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43 points.

&The Washington Commanders are coached by Ron Rivera who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 2-0-0 after going 8-8-1 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense andRon Rivera is no different.

The Washington Commanders are coached by Ron Rivera who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 2-0-0 after going 8-8-1 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense andRon Rivera is no different.

Sam Howell is the quarterback for the Washington Commanders. The 23-year-old North Carolina alum entered the league in 2022 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and throw for 501 yards with a completion percentage of 65.7 percent. Sam Howell has thrown 3 touchdowns against 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 95.

His main target will be Terry McLaurin. The home crowd would love to see some fireworks from the 28-year-old target. He has made 7 receptions to date on 10 targets, a catch percentage of 0.7, for a total of 85 yards. Terry McLaurin is averaging 12.1 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Sam Howell will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Washington Commanders running game is lead by the 24-year-old Brian Robinson Jr.. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 37 carries and rushed for 146 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 73 yards per game, a number that you know Ron Rivera would love to see him exceed in this game. Brian Robinson Jr. has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Their kicker is Joey Slye who has made 4 of 6 field goals this season, a 0.667 field goal percentage, with a long of 49 yards. The Washington Commanders fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit one if needed.

Overall, the Washington Commanders offense ranks 11 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 0.109608026469957, per FootballOutsiders. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.625 with 5 Red Zone touchdowns in 8 attempts.

On the defensive end, the Washington Commanders have a Defense DVOA of -0.103800135024937, ranking 10 in the league.

The Buffalo Bills are on the road for this one. Sean McDermott’s squad is 1-1-0 this season after going 13-3 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Buffalo Bills have a betting line of +6 or you could bet them straight up at -110.

27-year-old Josh Allen will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2018 after playing his college days at Wyoming. Josh Allen has a quarterback rating of 94.5 on 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 510, a completion percentage of 76.9.

The Buffalo Bills will look to get the running game going in this match-up and to do that they’ll need a big game from James Cook. The 24-year-old back has rushed for 0 touchdowns thus far this season and he’ll look to take it to the house again against the Washington Commanders. He’s taken the hand-off 29 times and added 169 yards for the offense. James Cook is averaging 84.5 yards per game for the season and has lost the ball 0 times. A turnover on the road could be seen as unacceptable for Sean McDermott so he’ll need to protect the ball here.

On the passing front, Josh Allen will look to target Stefon Diggs against the Sean McDermott defense. Stefon Diggs has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 20 times and made 17 catches for 168 yards. Stefon Diggs has a catch percentage of 0.85 and his yards per reception is 9.9.

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Tyler Bass to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 50 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Tyler Bass has made 4 field goals on 50 attempts, a field goal percentage of 1.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Buffalo Bills offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 0.138313343086426 which ranks at number 8 out of thirty two teams. If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 6 Red Zone touchdowns on 9 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.667.

Key Match-ups:

  • Sam Howell QB Rating of 95 vs. Buffalo Bills Defensive Passing YPG of 151
    Buffalo Bills have 17 interceptions this year and 3 sacks. They are allowing 17.875 points per game.
  • Brian Robinson Jr. vs. Buffalo Bills number 3 ranked DVOA Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per carry against Buffalo Bills and 104.5625 per game.
  • Josh Allen QB Rating of 94.5 vs. Washington Commanders Pass Defense
  • The Washington Commanders defense has allowed 20.1764705882353 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 10 times and picked him off 9 times.
  • James Cook vs. Washington Commanders Defense
    Washington Commanders is giving up 113.294117647059 yards per game on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.