Bears vs. Chiefs: Week 3 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 September 2023

The 1-1-0 Kansas City Chiefs host the 0-2-0 Chicago Bears at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The Kansas City Chiefs have a point spread of -13 with a money line of +100. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 48 points.

&The Kansas City Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid who has been with the team since 2013. They have a current season record of 1-1-0 after going 14-3 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense andAndy Reid is no different.

The Kansas City Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid who has been with the team since 2013. They have a current season record of 1-1-0 after going 14-3 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense andAndy Reid is no different.

Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs. The 28-year-old Texas Tech alum entered the league in 2017 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and throw for 531 yards with a completion percentage of 62.5 percent. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 4 touchdowns against 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 88.1.

His main target will be Travis Kelce. The home crowd would love to see some fireworks from the 34-year-old target. He has made 4 receptions to date on 9 targets, a catch percentage of 0.444, for a total of 26 yards. Travis Kelce is averaging 6.5 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Patrick Mahomes will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Kansas City Chiefs running game is lead by the 24-year-old Isiah Pacheco. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 20 carries and rushed for 93 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 46.5 yards per game, a number that you know Andy Reid would love to see him exceed in this game. Isiah Pacheco has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Their kicker is Harrison Butker who has made 3 of 3 field goals this season, a 1 field goal percentage, with a long of 39 yards. The Kansas City Chiefs fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit one if needed.

Overall, the Kansas City Chiefs offense ranks 12 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 0.101289477264467, per FootballOutsiders. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.571 with 4 Red Zone touchdowns in 7 attempts.

On the defensive end, the Kansas City Chiefs have a Defense DVOA of 0.0347774936417026, ranking 19 in the league.

The Chicago Bears are on the road for this one. Matt Eberflus’s squad is 0-2-0 this season after going 3-14 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Chicago Bears have a betting line of -13 or you could bet them straight up at +100.

24-year-old Justin Fields will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Ohio State. Justin Fields has a quarterback rating of 70.7 on 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 427, a completion percentage of 60.6.

The Chicago Bears will look to get the running game going in this match-up and to do that they’ll need a big game from Khalil Herbert. The 25-year-old back has rushed for 0 touchdowns thus far this season and he’ll look to take it to the house again against the Kansas City Chiefs. He’s taken the hand-off 16 times and added 62 yards for the offense. Khalil Herbert is averaging 31 yards per game for the season and has lost the ball 0 times. A turnover on the road could be seen as unacceptable for Matt Eberflus so he’ll need to protect the ball here.

On the passing front, Justin Fields will look to target D.J. Moore against the Matt Eberflus defense. D.J. Moore has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 9 times and made 8 catches for 129 yards. D.J. Moore has a catch percentage of 0.889 and his yards per reception is 16.1.

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Cairo Santos to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 52 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Cairo Santos has made 3 field goals on 52 attempts, a field goal percentage of 1.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Chicago Bears offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -0.328326203978699 which ranks at number 30 out of thirty two teams. If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 2 Red Zone touchdowns on 3 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.667.

Key Match-ups:

  • Patrick Mahomes QB Rating of 88.1 vs. Chicago Bears Defensive Passing YPG of 277
    Chicago Bears have 14 interceptions this year and 1 sacks. They are allowing 27.2352941176471 points per game.
  • Isiah Pacheco vs. Chicago Bears number 26 ranked DVOA Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.9 yards per carry against Chicago Bears and 157.294117647059 per game.
  • Justin Fields QB Rating of 70.7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pass Defense
  • The Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed 21.7058823529412 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 5 times and picked him off 11 times.
  • Khalil Herbert vs. Kansas City Chiefs Defense
    Kansas City Chiefs is giving up 107.235294117647 yards per game on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.