Falcons vs. Lions: Week 3 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 September 2023

The 1-1-0 Detroit Lions host the 2-0-0 Atlanta Falcons at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. The Detroit Lions have a point spread of -3 with a money line of -115. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 46 points.

&The Detroit Lions are coached by Dan Campbell who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 1-1-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense andDan Campbell is no different.

The Detroit Lions are coached by Dan Campbell who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 1-1-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense andDan Campbell is no different.

Jared Goff is the quarterback for the Detroit Lions. The 29-year-old California alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and throw for 576 yards with a completion percentage of 71.4 percent. Jared Goff has thrown 4 touchdowns against 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 109.

His main target will be Amon-Ra St. Brown. The home crowd would love to see some fireworks from the 24-year-old target. He has made 12 receptions to date on 16 targets, a catch percentage of 0.75, for a total of 173 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 14.4 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Jared Goff will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Detroit Lions running game is lead by the 26-year-old David Montgomery. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 37 carries and rushed for 141 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 70.5 yards per game, a number that you know Dan Campbell would love to see him exceed in this game. David Montgomery has 2 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Their kicker is Riley Patterson who has made 1 of 1 field goals this season, a 1 field goal percentage, with a long of 38 yards. The Detroit Lions fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit one if needed.

Overall, the Detroit Lions offense ranks 9 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 0.132228161963218, per FootballOutsiders. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.8 with 4 Red Zone touchdowns in 5 attempts.

On the defensive end, the Detroit Lions have a Defense DVOA of 0.157470211158086, ranking 23 in the league.

The Atlanta Falcons are on the road for this one. Arthur Smith’s squad is 2-0-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Atlanta Falcons have a betting line of -3 or you could bet them straight up at -115.

24-year-old Desmond Ridder will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2022 after playing his college days at Cincinnati. Desmond Ridder has a quarterback rating of 93.1 on 2 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 352, a completion percentage of 68.

The Atlanta Falcons will look to get the running game going in this match-up and to do that they’ll need a big game from Bijan Robinson. The 21-year-old back has rushed for 0 touchdowns thus far this season and he’ll look to take it to the house again against the Detroit Lions. He’s taken the hand-off 29 times and added 180 yards for the offense. Bijan Robinson is averaging 90 yards per game for the season and has lost the ball 0 times. A turnover on the road could be seen as unacceptable for Arthur Smith so he’ll need to protect the ball here.

On the passing front, Desmond Ridder will look to target Drake London against the Arthur Smith defense. Drake London has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 9 times and made 6 catches for 67 yards. Drake London has a catch percentage of 0.667 and his yards per reception is 11.2.

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Younghoe Koo to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 49 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Younghoe Koo has made 5 field goals on 49 attempts, a field goal percentage of 1.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Atlanta Falcons offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 0.0407826386479807 which ranks at number 15 out of thirty two teams. If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 6 Red Zone touchdowns on 9 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.667.

Key Match-ups:

  • Jared Goff QB Rating of 109 vs. Atlanta Falcons Defensive Passing YPG of 133.5
    Atlanta Falcons have 17 interceptions this year and 3 sacks. They are allowing 17.875 points per game.
  • David Montgomery vs. Atlanta Falcons number 14 ranked DVOA Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per carry against Atlanta Falcons and 104.5625 per game.
  • Desmond Ridder QB Rating of 93.1 vs. Detroit Lions Pass Defense
  • The Detroit Lions defense has allowed 25.1176470588235 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 1 times and picked him off 12 times.
  • Bijan Robinson vs. Detroit Lions Defense
    Detroit Lions is giving up 146.529411764706 yards per game on 5.2 per carry thus far this season.