Broncos vs. Dolphins: Week 3 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 September 2023

The 2-0-0 Miami Dolphins host the 0-2-0 Denver Broncos at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Miami Dolphins have a point spread of -6½ with a money line of -110. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 48 points.

&The Miami Dolphins are coached by Mike McDaniel who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-0-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense andMike McDaniel is no different.

The Miami Dolphins are coached by Mike McDaniel who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-0-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense andMike McDaniel is no different.

Tua Tagovailoa is the quarterback for the Miami Dolphins. The 25-year-old Alabama alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and throw for 715 yards with a completion percentage of 65.3 percent. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 4 touchdowns against 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 102.9.

His main target will be Tyreek Hill. The home crowd would love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 16 receptions to date on 24 targets, a catch percentage of 0.667, for a total of 255 yards. Tyreek Hill is averaging 15.9 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Tua Tagovailoa will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Miami Dolphins running game is lead by the 31-year-old Raheem Mostert. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 28 carries and rushed for 158 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 79 yards per game, a number that you know Mike McDaniel would love to see him exceed in this game. Raheem Mostert has 3 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Their kicker is Jason Sanders who has made 4 of 6 field goals this season, a 0.667 field goal percentage, with a long of 45 yards. The Miami Dolphins fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit one if needed.

Overall, the Miami Dolphins offense ranks 1 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 0.474384547584215, per FootballOutsiders. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.625 with 5 Red Zone touchdowns in 8 attempts.

On the defensive end, the Miami Dolphins have a Defense DVOA of 0.0767077805659659, ranking 21 in the league.

The Denver Broncos are on the road for this one. Sean Payton’s squad is 0-2-0 this season after going 5-12 last year. He has been at the helm since 2023 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Denver Broncos have a betting line of -6½ or you could bet them straight up at -110.

35-year-old Russell Wilson will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Wisconsin. Russell Wilson has a quarterback rating of 108.5 on 5 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 485, a completion percentage of 68.2.

The Denver Broncos will look to get the running game going in this match-up and to do that they’ll need a big game from Javonte Williams. The 23-year-old back has rushed for 0 touchdowns thus far this season and he’ll look to take it to the house again against the Miami Dolphins. He’s taken the hand-off 25 times and added 96 yards for the offense. Javonte Williams is averaging 48 yards per game for the season and has lost the ball 0 times. A turnover on the road could be seen as unacceptable for Sean Payton so he’ll need to protect the ball here.

On the passing front, Russell Wilson will look to target Courtland Sutton against the Sean Payton defense. Courtland Sutton has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 12 times and made 9 catches for 98 yards. Courtland Sutton has a catch percentage of 0.75 and his yards per reception is 10.9.

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Wil Lutz to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 32 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Wil Lutz has made 3 field goals on 32 attempts, a field goal percentage of 0.75.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Denver Broncos offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 0.152246848612545 which ranks at number 7 out of thirty two teams. If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 4 Red Zone touchdowns on 7 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.571.

Key Match-ups:

  • Tua Tagovailoa QB Rating of 102.9 vs. Denver Broncos Defensive Passing YPG of 233
    Denver Broncos have 15 interceptions this year and 4 sacks. They are allowing 21.1176470588235 points per game.
  • Raheem Mostert vs. Denver Broncos number 30 ranked DVOA Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per carry against Denver Broncos and 109.764705882353 per game.
  • Russell Wilson QB Rating of 108.5 vs. Miami Dolphins Pass Defense
  • The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed 23.4705882352941 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 7 times and picked him off 8 times.
  • Javonte Williams vs. Miami Dolphins Defense
    Miami Dolphins is giving up 103 yards per game on 4.1 per carry thus far this season.