The 5-6-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the 4-8-0 New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers have a point spread of -4 with a money line of -190. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 40.5 points.
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New Orleans Saints (4)Record: 4-8-0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)Record: 5-6-0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense:
The Buccaneers are coached by Todd Bowles who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 5-6-0 after going 13-4 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Todd Bowles is no different.
Tom Brady is the quarterback for the Buccaneers. The 45-year-old Michigan alum entered the league in 2000 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 11 games and thrown for 3051 yards with a completion percentage of 66.2 percent. Tom Brady has thrown 14 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 92.4.
His main target will be Mike Evans. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 51 receptions to date on 85 targets, a catch percentage of 60.0%, for a total of 702 yards. Mike Evans is averaging 13.8 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Tom Brady will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Buccaneers running game is lead by the 27-year-old Leonard Fournette. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 135 carries and rushed for 462 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 46.2 YPG, a number that you know Todd Bowles would love to see him exceed in this game. Leonard Fournette has 3 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense ranks 17 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 1.4%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 15 with a Passing DVOA of 3.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 22.2%, ranking #10 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.5 with 16 Red Zone touchdowns in 32 attempts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Buccaneers have a Defense DVOA of -10.1%, ranking 7 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #11 at -5.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Andy Dalton. The Todd Bowles-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -5.4%, #6 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Ryan Succop who has made 23 of 26 field goals this season, a 88.5% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
New Orleans Saints Offense:
The Saints are on the road for this one. Dennis Allen’s squad is 4-8-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The New Orleans Saints have a betting line of 4 or you could bet them straight up at 165.
35-year-old Andy Dalton will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2011 after playing his college days at TCU. Andy Dalton has a quarterback rating of 95 on 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s started 9 games and thrown for 2023yards, a completion percentage of 66.4.
Alvin Kamara is the lead back for the Saints running game. The 27-year-old has taken 131 carries and rushed for 524 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 52.4 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 4 fumbles.
On the passing front, Andy Dalton will look to target Chris Olave against the Dennis Allen defense. Chris Olave has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 92 times and made 56 catches for 822 yards. Chris Olave has a catch percentage of 60.9% and his yards per reception is 14.7.
According to FootballOutsiders, the New Orleans Saints offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -8.1% which ranks at number 24 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -7.9%, the number 24 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 24 with a Rush DVOA total of -1.2%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 21 Red Zone touchdowns on 37 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.568.
New Orleans Saints Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Wil Lutz to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 60 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Wil Lutz has made 17 field goals on 60 attempts, a field goal percentage of 73.9%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Saints with a Defensive DVOA of 0.4% which ranks at 15/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #11 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -5.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.0% DVOA which ranks at #6.
Key Match-ups:
- Tom Brady QB Rating of 92.4 vs. New Orleans Saints Pass DVOA Defense of -7.9%
The Saints have 2 interceptions this year and 33 sacks. They are allowing 23.3 points per game. - Leonard Fournette vs. New Orleans Saints number 24 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against the the New Orleans Saints and 129.1 per game. - Andy Dalton QB Rating of 95 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers #11 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Buccaneers defense has allowed 18.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 36 times and picked him off 7 times. - Alvin Kamara vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.3% DVOA Rush Defense
The Buccaneers are giving up 123.2 YPG on 4.6 per carry thus far this season.
Saints/Buccaneers Bettting Stats:
Saints Against the spread: 4-8-0
Saints Over/Under: 6-6-0
Buccaneers Against the spread: 3-7-1
Buccaneers Over/Under: 2-9-0
The best bet is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 and Under 40.5.