Seahawks vs. Chiefs: Week 16 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 December 2022

The 11-3-0 Kansas City Chiefs host the 7-7-0 Seattle Seahawks at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The Chiefs have a point spread of -10 with a money line of -460. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 49 points.

Seattle Seahawks Kansas City Chiefs

Seattle Seahawks (10)

Record: 7-7-0
Points Per Game: 25.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.4

Kansas City Chiefs (-10)

Record: 11-3-0
Points Per Game: 29.6
Points Allowed Per Game: 23

Kansas City Chiefs Offense:

The Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid who has been with the team since 2013. They have a current season record of 11-3-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Andy Reid is no different.

Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback for the Chiefs. The 27-year-old Texas Tech alum entered the league in 2017 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 14 games and thrown for 4496 yards with a completion percentage of 67.4 percent. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 35 touchdowns despite 11 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 105.

His main target will be Travis Kelce. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 33-year-old target. He has made 91 receptions to date on 127 targets, a catch percentage of 71.7%, for a total of 1144 yards. Travis Kelce is averaging 12.6 yards per catch with 12 touchdowns thus far. Patrick Mahomes will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Chiefs running game is lead by the 22-year-old Isiah Pacheco. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 139 carries and rushed for 677 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 48.4 YPG, a number that you know Andy Reid would love to see him exceed in this game. Isiah Pacheco has 3 touchdowns this season and 4 fumbles.

Overall, the Kansas City Chiefs offense ranks 1 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 24.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 1 with a Passing DVOA of 41.3%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -2.5%, ranking #14 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.661 with 39 Red Zone touchdowns in 59 attempts.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Chiefs have a Defense DVOA of 6.30%, ranking 24 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #25 at 12.60% and they’ll need them to show up against Geno Smith. The Andy Reid-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 12.60%, #18 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Harrison Butker who has made 16 of 21 field goals this season, a 76.2% field goal percentage, with a long of 62 yards. The Kansas City Chiefs fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Seattle Seahawks Offense:

The Seahawks are on the road for this one. Pete Carroll’s squad is 7-7-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2010 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Seattle Seahawks have a betting line of 10 or you could bet them straight up at 370.

32-year-old Geno Smith will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2013 after playing his college days at West Virginia. Geno Smith has a quarterback rating of 105.3 on 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’s started 14 games and thrown for 3671yards, a completion percentage of 71.4.

Kenneth Walker III is the lead back for the Seahawks running game. The 22-year-old has taken 150 carries and rushed for 696 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 58 YPG and he has scored 9 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Geno Smith will look to target D.K. Metcalf against the Pete Carroll defense. D.K. Metcalf has 6 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 119 times and made 79 catches for 924 yards. D.K. Metcalf has a catch percentage of 66.4% and his yards per reception is 11.7.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Seattle Seahawks offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 7.9% which ranks at number 12 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 28.6%, the number 5 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 24 with a Rush DVOA total of -10.9%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 23 Red Zone touchdowns on 44 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.523.

Seattle Seahawks Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Jason Myers to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 56 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Jason Myers has made 26 field goals on 56 attempts, a field goal percentage of 96.3%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Seahawks with a Defensive DVOA of 6.40% which ranks at 25/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #25 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 12.60%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 8.70% DVOA which ranks at #18.

Key Match-ups:

  • Patrick Mahomes QB Rating of 105 vs. Seattle Seahawks Pass DVOA Defense of 28.6%
    The Seahawks have 11 interceptions this year and 35 sacks. They are allowing 25.4 points per game.
  • Isiah Pacheco vs. Seattle Seahawks number 24 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.9 yards per carry against the the Seattle Seahawks and 161.1 per game.
  • Geno Smith QB Rating of 105.3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs #25 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Chiefs defense has allowed 23 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 43 times and picked him off 8 times.
  • Kenneth Walker III vs. Kansas City Chiefs -3.90% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Chiefs are giving up 105.3 YPG on 4.3 per carry thus far this season.

Seahawks/Chiefs Bettting Stats:

Seahawks Against the spread: 6-8-0
Seahawks Over/Under: 8-6-0

Chiefs Against the spread: 4-10-0
Chiefs Over/Under: 7-7-0

The best bet is Seattle Seahawks 10 and Under 49.