Saints vs. Browns: Week 16 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 December 2022

The 6-8-0 Cleveland Browns host the 5-9-0 New Orleans Saints at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. The Browns have a point spread of -3 with a money line of -146. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 32 points.

New Orleans Saints Cleveland Browns

New Orleans Saints (3)

Record: 5-9-0
Points Per Game: 20.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.5

Cleveland Browns (-3)

Record: 6-8-0
Points Per Game: 22.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 23.3

Cleveland Browns Offense:

The Browns are coached by Kevin Stefanski who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 6-8-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kevin Stefanski is no different.

Deshaun Watson is the quarterback for the Browns. The 27-year-old Clemson alum entered the league in 2017 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 568 yards with a completion percentage of 60.9 percent. Deshaun Watson has thrown 2 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 76.7.

His main target will be Amari Cooper. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 28-year-old target. He has made 67 receptions to date on 115 targets, a catch percentage of 58.3%, for a total of 932 yards. Amari Cooper is averaging 13.9 yards per catch with 7 touchdowns thus far. Deshaun Watson will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Browns running game is lead by the 27-year-old Nick Chubb. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 252 carries and rushed for 1252 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 89.4 YPG, a number that you know Kevin Stefanski would love to see him exceed in this game. Nick Chubb has 12 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Cleveland Browns offense ranks 10 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 9.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 11 with a Passing DVOA of 19.8%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 4.4%, ranking #8 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.542 with 26 Red Zone touchdowns in 48 attempts.

Cleveland Browns Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Browns have a Defense DVOA of 6.50%, ranking 26 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #16 at 4.50% and they’ll need them to show up against Andy Dalton. The Kevin Stefanski-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 4.50%, #30 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Cade York who has made 22 of 30 field goals this season, a 73.3% field goal percentage, with a long of 58 yards. The Cleveland Browns fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

New Orleans Saints Offense:

The Saints are on the road for this one. Dennis Allen’s squad is 5-9-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The New Orleans Saints have a betting line of 3 or you could bet them straight up at 126.

35-year-old Andy Dalton will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2011 after playing his college days at TCU. Andy Dalton has a quarterback rating of 98.1 on 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s started 11 games and thrown for 2403yards, a completion percentage of 66.8.

Alvin Kamara is the lead back for the Saints running game. The 27-year-old has taken 164 carries and rushed for 641 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 53.4 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 4 fumbles.

On the passing front, Andy Dalton will look to target Chris Olave against the Dennis Allen defense. Chris Olave has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 102 times and made 63 catches for 940 yards. Chris Olave has a catch percentage of 61.8% and his yards per reception is 14.9.

According to FootballOutsiders, the New Orleans Saints offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -6.8% which ranks at number 23 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 6.5%, the number 20 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 23 with a Rush DVOA total of -10.7%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 22 Red Zone touchdowns on 42 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.524.

New Orleans Saints Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Wil Lutz to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 60 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Wil Lutz has made 20 field goals on 60 attempts, a field goal percentage of 76.9%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Saints with a Defensive DVOA of -0.10% which ranks at 14/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #16 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 4.50%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.30% DVOA which ranks at #30.

Key Match-ups:

  • Deshaun Watson QB Rating of 76.7 vs. New Orleans Saints Pass DVOA Defense of 6.5%
    The Saints have 3 interceptions this year and 38 sacks. They are allowing 22.5 points per game.
  • Nick Chubb vs. New Orleans Saints number 23 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the the New Orleans Saints and 132.6 per game.
  • Andy Dalton QB Rating of 98.1 vs. Cleveland Browns #16 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Browns defense has allowed 23.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 30 times and picked him off 7 times.
  • Alvin Kamara vs. Cleveland Browns 9.00% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Browns are giving up 133.1 YPG on 5 per carry thus far this season.

Saints/Browns Bettting Stats:

Saints Against the spread: 5-9-0
Saints Over/Under: 6-8-0

Browns Against the spread: 7-6-1
Browns Over/Under: 7-6-1

The best bet is Cleveland Browns -3 and Under 32.