Raiders vs. Steelers: Week 16 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 December 2022

The 6-8-0 Pittsburgh Steelers host the 6-8-0 Las Vegas Raiders at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Steelers have a point spread of -2.5 with a money line of -140. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 37.5 points.

Las Vegas Raiders Pittsburgh Steelers

Las Vegas Raiders (2.5)

Record: 6-8-0
Points Per Game: 24.1
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.1

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Record: 6-8-0
Points Per Game: 17.9
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.1

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense:

The Steelers are coached by Mike Tomlin who has been with the team since 2007. They have a current season record of 6-8-0 after going 9-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike Tomlin is no different.

Kenny Pickett is the quarterback for the Steelers. The 24-year-old Pitt alum entered the league in 2022 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 9 games and thrown for 1797 yards with a completion percentage of 65.0 percent. Kenny Pickett has thrown 4 touchdowns despite 8 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 74.9.

His main target will be Diontae Johnson. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 77 receptions to date on 123 targets, a catch percentage of 62.6%, for a total of 745 yards. Diontae Johnson is averaging 9.7 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Kenny Pickett will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Steelers running game is lead by the 24-year-old Najee Harris. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 211 carries and rushed for 790 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 56.4 YPG, a number that you know Mike Tomlin would love to see him exceed in this game. Najee Harris has 6 touchdowns this season and 2 fumbles.

Overall, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense ranks 18 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -1.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 21 with a Passing DVOA of 6.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -2.0%, ranking #13 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.523 with 23 Red Zone touchdowns in 44 attempts.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Steelers have a Defense DVOA of -1.10%, ranking 13 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #18 at 8.50% and they’ll need them to show up against Derek Carr. The Mike Tomlin-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 8.50%, #8 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Chris Boswell who has made 13 of 18 field goals this season, a 72.2% field goal percentage, with a long of 59 yards. The Pittsburgh Steelers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Las Vegas Raiders Offense:

The Raiders are on the road for this one. Josh McDaniels’s squad is 6-8-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Las Vegas Raiders have a betting line of 2.5 or you could bet them straight up at 120.

31-year-old Derek Carr will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2014 after playing his college days at Fresno State. Derek Carr has a quarterback rating of 89.2 on 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He’s started 14 games and thrown for 3348yards, a completion percentage of 61.2.

Josh Jacobs is the lead back for the Raiders running game. The 24-year-old has taken 291 carries and rushed for 1495 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 106.8 YPG and he has scored 11 touchdowns with 3 fumbles.

On the passing front, Derek Carr will look to target Davante Adams against the Josh McDaniels defense. Davante Adams has 12 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 151 times and made 86 catches for 1275 yards. Davante Adams has a catch percentage of 57.0% and his yards per reception is 14.8.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Las Vegas Raiders offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 2.0% which ranks at number 16 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 8.1%, the number 18 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 7 with a Rush DVOA total of 6.2%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 19 Red Zone touchdowns on 40 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.475.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Daniel Carlson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 57 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Daniel Carlson has made 29 field goals on 57 attempts, a field goal percentage of 90.6%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Raiders with a Defensive DVOA of 13.50% which ranks at 32/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #18 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 8.50%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 24.80% DVOA which ranks at #8.

Key Match-ups:

  • Kenny Pickett QB Rating of 74.9 vs. Las Vegas Raiders Pass DVOA Defense of 8.1%
    The Raiders have 4 interceptions this year and 25 sacks. They are allowing 24.1 points per game.
  • Najee Harris vs. Las Vegas Raiders number 7 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per carry against the the Las Vegas Raiders and 117.4 per game.
  • Derek Carr QB Rating of 89.2 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers #18 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Steelers defense has allowed 22.1 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 29 times and picked him off 14 times.
  • Josh Jacobs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -13.80% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Steelers are giving up 109 YPG on 4.1 per carry thus far this season.

Raiders/Steelers Bettting Stats:

Raiders Against the spread: 7-7-0
Raiders Over/Under: 7-6-1

Steelers Against the spread: 7-6-1
Steelers Over/Under: 6-8-0

The best bet is Las Vegas Raiders 2.5 and Under 37.5.