Packers vs. Dolphins: Week 16 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 December 2022

The 8-6-0 Miami Dolphins host the 6-8-0 Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Dolphins have a point spread of 3.5 with a money line of -190. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 49.5 points.

Green Bay Packers Miami Dolphins

Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Record: 6-8-0
Points Per Game: 20.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.4

Miami Dolphins (3.5)

Record: 8-6-0
Points Per Game: 24.6
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.6

Miami Dolphins Offense:

The Dolphins are coached by Mike McDaniel who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 8-6-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike McDaniel is no different.

Tua Tagovailoa is the quarterback for the Dolphins. The 24-year-old Alabama alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 12 games and thrown for 3238 yards with a completion percentage of 64.8 percent. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 24 touchdowns despite 5 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 107.8.

His main target will be Tyreek Hill. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 28-year-old target. He has made 109 receptions to date on 152 targets, a catch percentage of 71.7%, for a total of 1529 yards. Tyreek Hill is averaging 14 yards per catch with 7 touchdowns thus far. Tua Tagovailoa will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Dolphins running game is lead by the 27-year-old Jeff Wilson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 136 carries and rushed for 706 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 54.3 YPG, a number that you know Mike McDaniel would love to see him exceed in this game. Jeff Wilson has 4 touchdowns this season and 3 fumbles.

Overall, the Miami Dolphins offense ranks 3 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 17.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 2 with a Passing DVOA of 37.5%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 0.3%, ranking #11 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.605 with 26 Red Zone touchdowns in 43 attempts.

Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Dolphins have a Defense DVOA of 2.80%, ranking 18 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #26 at 12.60% and they’ll need them to show up against Aaron Rodgers. The Mike McDaniel-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 12.60%, #11 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Jason Sanders who has made 21 of 25 field goals this season, a 84.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 55 yards. The Miami Dolphins fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Green Bay Packers Offense:

The Packers are on the road for this one. Matt LaFleur’s squad is 6-8-0 this season after going 13-4 last year. He has been at the helm since 2019 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Green Bay Packers have a betting line of -3.5 or you could bet them straight up at 165.

39-year-old Aaron Rodgers will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2005 after playing his college days at California. Aaron Rodgers has a quarterback rating of 92.3 on 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He’s started 14 games and thrown for 3093yards, a completion percentage of 64.9.

Aaron Jones is the lead back for the Packers running game. The 28-year-old has taken 181 carries and rushed for 937 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 66.9 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 4 fumbles.

On the passing front, Aaron Rodgers will look to target Allen Lazard against the Matt LaFleur defense. Allen Lazard has 5 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 77 times and made 46 catches for 627 yards. Allen Lazard has a catch percentage of 59.7% and his yards per reception is 13.6.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Green Bay Packers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 9.7% which ranks at number 7 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 12.9%, the number 14 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 3 with a Rush DVOA total of 10.2%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 23 Red Zone touchdowns on 44 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.523.

Green Bay Packers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Mason Crosby to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 48 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Mason Crosby has made 16 field goals on 48 attempts, a field goal percentage of 84.2%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Packers with a Defensive DVOA of 4.60% which ranks at 22/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #26 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 12.60%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -2.40% DVOA which ranks at #11.

Key Match-ups:

  • Tua Tagovailoa QB Rating of 107.8 vs. Green Bay Packers Pass DVOA Defense of 12.9%
    The Packers have 11 interceptions this year and 29 sacks. They are allowing 22.4 points per game.
  • Jeff Wilson vs. Green Bay Packers number 3 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 5 yards per carry against the the Green Bay Packers and 148.9 per game.
  • Aaron Rodgers QB Rating of 92.3 vs. Miami Dolphins #26 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Dolphins defense has allowed 24.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 35 times and picked him off 7 times.
  • Aaron Jones vs. Miami Dolphins -12.30% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Dolphins are giving up 111.3 YPG on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.

Packers/Dolphins Bettting Stats:

Packers Against the spread: 6-8-0
Packers Over/Under: 7-7-0

Dolphins Against the spread: 7-7-0
Dolphins Over/Under: 7-7-0

The best bet is Miami Dolphins 3.5 and Under 49.5.