Lions vs. Panthers: Week 16 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 December 2022

The 5-9-0 Carolina Panthers host the 7-7-0 Detroit Lions at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Panthers have a point spread of 2.5 with a money line of 125. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43.5 points.

Detroit Lions Carolina Panthers

Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Record: 7-7-0
Points Per Game: 26.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 26

Carolina Panthers (2.5)

Record: 5-9-0
Points Per Game: 19.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.4

Carolina Panthers Offense:

The Panthers are coached by Matt Rhule who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 5-9-0 after going 5-12 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt Rhule is no different.

Sam Darnold is the quarterback for the Panthers. The 25-year-old USC alum entered the league in 2018 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 509 yards with a completion percentage of 59.1 percent. Sam Darnold has thrown 3 touchdowns despite 0 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 98.6.

His main target will be D.J. Moore. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 51 receptions to date on 97 targets, a catch percentage of 52.6%, for a total of 678 yards. D.J. Moore is averaging 13.3 yards per catch with 5 touchdowns thus far. Sam Darnold will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Panthers running game is lead by the 26-year-old D’Onta Foreman. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 157 carries and rushed for 646 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 46.1 YPG, a number that you know Matt Rhule would love to see him exceed in this game. D’Onta Foreman has 4 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Carolina Panthers offense ranks 29 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -16.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 30 with a Passing DVOA of -16.6%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -6.1%, ranking #20 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.514 with 19 Red Zone touchdowns in 37 attempts.

Carolina Panthers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Panthers have a Defense DVOA of 4.40%, ranking 20 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #21 at 10.60% and they’ll need them to show up against Jared Goff. The Matt Rhule-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 10.60%, #21 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Eddy Pineiro who has made 28 of 30 field goals this season, a 93.3% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Carolina Panthers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Detroit Lions Offense:

The Lions are on the road for this one. Dan Campbell’s squad is 7-7-0 this season after going 3-13-1 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Detroit Lions have a betting line of -2.5 or you could bet them straight up at -145.

28-year-old Jared Goff will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2016 after playing his college days at California. Jared Goff has a quarterback rating of 97.2 on 23 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s started 14 games and thrown for 3604yards, a completion percentage of 64.9.

D’Andre Swift is the lead back for the Lions running game. The 23-year-old has taken 78 carries and rushed for 427 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 38.8 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Jared Goff will look to target Amon-Ra St. Brown against the Dan Campbell defense. Amon-Ra St. Brown has 6 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 119 times and made 89 catches for 974 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown has a catch percentage of 74.8% and his yards per reception is 10.9.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Detroit Lions offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 10.7% which ranks at number 6 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 25.1%, the number 8 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 12 with a Rush DVOA total of -0.5%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 36 Red Zone touchdowns on 51 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.706.

Detroit Lions Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Michael Badgley to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 53 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Michael Badgley has made 19 field goals on 53 attempts, a field goal percentage of 86.4%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Lions with a Defensive DVOA of 5.20% which ranks at 23/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #21 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 10.60%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 11.00% DVOA which ranks at #21.

Key Match-ups:

  • Sam Darnold QB Rating of 98.6 vs. Detroit Lions Pass DVOA Defense of 25.1%
    The Lions have 10 interceptions this year and 30 sacks. They are allowing 26 points per game.
  • D’Onta Foreman vs. Detroit Lions number 12 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.9 yards per carry against the the Detroit Lions and 133.4 per game.
  • Jared Goff QB Rating of 97.2 vs. Carolina Panthers #21 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Panthers defense has allowed 22.4 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 29 times and picked him off 10 times.
  • D’Andre Swift vs. Carolina Panthers -2.50% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Panthers are giving up 130.7 YPG on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.

Lions/Panthers Bettting Stats:

Lions Against the spread: 10-4-0
Lions Over/Under: 9-5-0

Panthers Against the spread: 7-7-0
Panthers Over/Under: 6-8-0

The best bet is Detroit Lions -2.5 and Under 43.5.