Giants vs. Vikings: Week 16 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 December 2022

The 11-3-0 Minnesota Vikings host the 8-5-1 New York Giants at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Vikings have a point spread of -4.5 with a money line of -215. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 47.5 points.

New York Giants Minnesota Vikings

New York Giants (4.5)

Record: 8-5-1
Points Per Game: 20.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.3

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

Record: 11-3-0
Points Per Game: 25.1
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.9

Minnesota Vikings Offense:

The Vikings are coached by Kevin O’Connell who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 11-3-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kevin O’Connell is no different.

Kirk Cousins is the quarterback for the Vikings. The 34-year-old Michigan State alum entered the league in 2012 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 14 games and thrown for 3818 yards with a completion percentage of 65.3 percent. Kirk Cousins has thrown 24 touchdowns despite 11 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 92.

His main target will be Justin Jefferson. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 111 receptions to date on 158 targets, a catch percentage of 70.3%, for a total of 1623 yards. Justin Jefferson is averaging 14.6 yards per catch with 7 touchdowns thus far. Kirk Cousins will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Vikings running game is lead by the 27-year-old Dalvin Cook. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 230 carries and rushed for 1045 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 74.6 YPG, a number that you know Kevin O’Connell would love to see him exceed in this game. Dalvin Cook has 8 touchdowns this season and 3 fumbles.

Overall, the Minnesota Vikings offense ranks 20 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -2.9%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 17 with a Passing DVOA of 8.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -10.3%, ranking #22 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.635 with 33 Red Zone touchdowns in 52 attempts.

Minnesota Vikings Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Vikings have a Defense DVOA of 4.30%, ranking 19 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #27 at 13.30% and they’ll need them to show up against Daniel Jones. The Kevin O’Connell-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 13.30%, #15 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Greg Joseph who has made 20 of 25 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 56 yards. The Minnesota Vikings fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

New York Giants Offense:

The Giants are on the road for this one. Brian Daboll’s squad is 8-5-1 this season after going 4-13 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The New York Giants have a betting line of 4.5 or you could bet them straight up at 185.

25-year-old Daniel Jones will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2019 after playing his college days at Duke. Daniel Jones has a quarterback rating of 90.5 on 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 14 games and thrown for 2694yards, a completion percentage of 66.0.

Saquon Barkley is the lead back for the Giants running game. The 25-year-old has taken 269 carries and rushed for 1170 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 83.6 YPG and he has scored 9 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Daniel Jones will look to target Darius Slayton against the Brian Daboll defense. Darius Slayton has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 62 times and made 40 catches for 631 yards. Darius Slayton has a catch percentage of 64.5% and his yards per reception is 15.8.

According to FootballOutsiders, the New York Giants offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 5.0% which ranks at number 14 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 19.8%, the number 10 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 10 with a Rush DVOA total of 0.6%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 25 Red Zone touchdowns on 40 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.625.

New York Giants Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Graham Gano to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 57 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Graham Gano has made 24 field goals on 57 attempts, a field goal percentage of 88.9%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Giants with a Defensive DVOA of 11.40% which ranks at 29/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #27 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 13.30%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 12.50% DVOA which ranks at #15.

Key Match-ups:

  • Kirk Cousins QB Rating of 92 vs. New York Giants Pass DVOA Defense of 19.8%
    The Giants have 4 interceptions this year and 32 sacks. They are allowing 22.3 points per game.
  • Dalvin Cook vs. New York Giants number 10 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 5.4 yards per carry against the the New York Giants and 150.4 per game.
  • Daniel Jones QB Rating of 90.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings #27 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Vikings defense has allowed 24.9 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 33 times and picked him off 12 times.
  • Saquon Barkley vs. Minnesota Vikings -8.90% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Vikings are giving up 120.4 YPG on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.

Giants/Vikings Bettting Stats:

Giants Against the spread: 10-4-0
Giants Over/Under: 5-9-0

Vikings Against the spread: 6-7-1
Vikings Over/Under: 9-5-0

The best bet is New York Giants 4.5 and Under 47.5.