Falcons vs. Ravens: Week 16 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 December 2022

The 9-5-0 Baltimore Ravens host the 5-9-0 Atlanta Falcons at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. The Ravens have a point spread of -7 with a money line of -325. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 35.5 points.

Atlanta Falcons Baltimore Ravens

Atlanta Falcons (7)

Record: 5-9-0
Points Per Game: 21.9
Points Allowed Per Game: 23.8

Baltimore Ravens (-7)

Record: 9-5-0
Points Per Game: 21.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 18.8

Baltimore Ravens Offense:

The Ravens are coached by John Harbaugh who has been with the team since 2008. They have a current season record of 9-5-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly John Harbaugh is no different.

Lamar Jackson is the quarterback for the Ravens. The 25-year-old Louisville alum entered the league in 2018 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 12 games and thrown for 2242 yards with a completion percentage of 62.3 percent. Lamar Jackson has thrown 17 touchdowns despite 7 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 91.1.

His main target will be Mark Andrews. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 61 receptions to date on 99 targets, a catch percentage of 61.6%, for a total of 702 yards. Mark Andrews is averaging 11.5 yards per catch with 5 touchdowns thus far. Lamar Jackson will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Ravens running game is lead by the 27-year-old Gus Edwards. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 69 carries and rushed for 316 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 52.7 YPG, a number that you know John Harbaugh would love to see him exceed in this game. Gus Edwards has 3 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Baltimore Ravens offense ranks 11 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 8.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 13 with a Passing DVOA of 14.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 10.9%, ranking #2 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.48 with 24 Red Zone touchdowns in 50 attempts.

Baltimore Ravens Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Ravens have a Defense DVOA of -6.90%, ranking 8 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #9 at -2.20% and they’ll need them to show up against Desmond Ridder. The John Harbaugh-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -2.20%, #6 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Justin Tucker who has made 29 of 34 field goals this season, a 85.3% field goal percentage, with a long of 58 yards. The Baltimore Ravens fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Atlanta Falcons Offense:

The Falcons are on the road for this one. Arthur Smith’s squad is 5-9-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Atlanta Falcons have a betting line of 7 or you could bet them straight up at 270.

23-year-old Desmond Ridder will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2022 after playing his college days at Cincinnati. Desmond Ridder has a quarterback rating of 59.3 on 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He’s started 1 games and thrown for 97yards, a completion percentage of 50.0.

Cordarrelle Patterson is the lead back for the Falcons running game. The 31-year-old has taken 122 carries and rushed for 618 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 61.8 YPG and he has scored 6 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Desmond Ridder will look to target Drake London against the Arthur Smith defense. Drake London has 4 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 92 times and made 54 catches for 603 yards. Drake London has a catch percentage of 58.7% and his yards per reception is 11.2.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Atlanta Falcons offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 5.7% which ranks at number 13 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 6.8%, the number 19 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 4 with a Rush DVOA total of 9.7%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 31 Red Zone touchdowns on 52 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.596.

Atlanta Falcons Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Younghoe Koo to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 54 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Younghoe Koo has made 24 field goals on 54 attempts, a field goal percentage of 82.8%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Falcons with a Defensive DVOA of 12.50% which ranks at 30/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #9 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -2.20%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 21.50% DVOA which ranks at #6.

Key Match-ups:

  • Lamar Jackson QB Rating of 91.1 vs. Atlanta Falcons Pass DVOA Defense of 6.8%
    The Falcons have 13 interceptions this year and 37 sacks. They are allowing 17.9 points per game.
  • Gus Edwards vs. Atlanta Falcons number 4 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry against the the Atlanta Falcons and 106.1 per game.
  • Desmond Ridder QB Rating of 59.3 vs. Baltimore Ravens #9 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Ravens defense has allowed 18.8 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 42 times and picked him off 14 times.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Baltimore Ravens -14.60% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Ravens are giving up 85.6 YPG on 3.8 per carry thus far this season.

Falcons/Ravens Bettting Stats:

Falcons Against the spread: 8-6-0
Falcons Over/Under: 6-8-0

Ravens Against the spread: 6-8-0
Ravens Over/Under: 4-10-0

The best bet is Baltimore Ravens -7 and Under 35.5.