Commanders vs. 49ers: Week 16 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 December 2022

The 10-4-0 San Francisco 49ers host the 7-6-1 Washington Commanders at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers have a point spread of -7 with a money line of -315. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 38 points.

Washington Commanders San Francisco 49ers

Washington Commanders (7)

Record: 7-6-1
Points Per Game: 18.9
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.7

San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Record: 10-4-0
Points Per Game: 24.1
Points Allowed Per Game: 15

San Francisco 49ers Offense:

The 49ers are coached by Kyle Shanahan who has been with the team since 2017. They have a current season record of 10-4-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kyle Shanahan is no different.

Brock Purdy is the quarterback for the 49ers. The 23-year-old Iowa State alum entered the league in 2022 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 678 yards with a completion percentage of 66.7 percent. Brock Purdy has thrown 6 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 100.6.

His main target will be Deebo Samuel. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 54 receptions to date on 91 targets, a catch percentage of 59.3%, for a total of 612 yards. Deebo Samuel is averaging 11.3 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Brock Purdy will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The 49ers running game is lead by the 26-year-old Christian McCaffrey. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 200 carries and rushed for 927 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 66.2 YPG, a number that you know Kyle Shanahan would love to see him exceed in this game. Christian McCaffrey has 6 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the San Francisco 49ers offense ranks 9 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 9.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 4 with a Passing DVOA of 31.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -5.5%, ranking #18 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.543 with 25 Red Zone touchdowns in 46 attempts.

San Francisco 49ers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the 49ers have a Defense DVOA of -17.60%, ranking 1 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #5 at -14.30% and they’ll need them to show up against Taylor Heinicke. The Kyle Shanahan-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -14.30%, #2 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Robbie Gould who has made 20 of 24 field goals this season, a 83.3% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The San Francisco 49ers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Washington Commanders Offense:

The Commanders are on the road for this one. Ron Rivera’s squad is 7-6-1 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2020 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Washington Commanders have a betting line of 7 or you could bet them straight up at 265.

29-year-old Taylor Heinicke will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2015 after playing his college days at Old Dominion. Taylor Heinicke has a quarterback rating of 87.7 on 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 8 games and thrown for 1693yards, a completion percentage of 61.4.

Antonio Gibson is the lead back for the Commanders running game. The 24-year-old has taken 144 carries and rushed for 536 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 38.3 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Taylor Heinicke will look to target Terry McLaurin against the Ron Rivera defense. Terry McLaurin has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 104 times and made 68 catches for 1015 yards. Terry McLaurin has a catch percentage of 65.4% and his yards per reception is 14.9.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Washington Commanders offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -13.0% which ranks at number 26 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -8.0%, the number 28 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 25 with a Rush DVOA total of -12.0%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 19 Red Zone touchdowns on 37 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.514.

Washington Commanders Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Joey Slye to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 58 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Joey Slye has made 22 field goals on 58 attempts, a field goal percentage of 88.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Commanders with a Defensive DVOA of -5.00% which ranks at 10/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #5 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -14.30%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 3.10% DVOA which ranks at #2.

Key Match-ups:

  • Brock Purdy QB Rating of 100.6 vs. Washington Commanders Pass DVOA Defense of -8.0%
    The Commanders have 7 interceptions this year and 34 sacks. They are allowing 19.7 points per game.
  • Christian McCaffrey vs. Washington Commanders number 25 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry against the the Washington Commanders and 111.6 per game.
  • Taylor Heinicke QB Rating of 87.7 vs. San Francisco 49ers #5 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The 49ers defense has allowed 15 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 39 times and picked him off 14 times.
  • Antonio Gibson vs. San Francisco 49ers -23.20% DVOA Rush Defense
    The 49ers are giving up 74.7 YPG on 3.4 per carry thus far this season.

Commanders/49ers Bettting Stats:

Commanders Against the spread: 7-6-1
Commanders Over/Under: 4-10-0

49ers Against the spread: 9-5-0
49ers Over/Under: 6-8-0

The best bet is San Francisco 49ers -7 and Under 38.