Chargers vs. Colts: Week 16 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 December 2022

The 4-9-1 Indianapolis Colts host the 8-6-0 Los Angeles Chargers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Colts have a point spread of 5 with a money line of =+185. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 46 points.

Los Angeles Chargers Indianapolis Colts

Los Angeles Chargers (-5)

Record: 8-6-0
Points Per Game: 22.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.3

Indianapolis Colts (5)

Record: 4-9-1
Points Per Game: 17.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.1

Indianapolis Colts Offense:

The Colts are coached by Jeff Saturday who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 4-9-1 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Jeff Saturday is no different.

Nick Foles is the quarterback for the Colts. The 33-year-old Arizona alum entered the league in 2012 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 0 games and thrown for 0 yards with a completion percentage of 0 percent. Nick Foles has thrown 0 touchdowns despite 0 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 0.

His main target will be Michael Pittman Jr.. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 86 receptions to date on 121 targets, a catch percentage of 71.1%, for a total of 815 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. is averaging 9.5 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Nick Foles will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Colts running game is lead by the 23-year-old Jonathan Taylor. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 192 carries and rushed for 861 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 78.3 YPG, a number that you know Jeff Saturday would love to see him exceed in this game. Jonathan Taylor has 4 touchdowns this season and 3 fumbles.

Overall, the Indianapolis Colts offense ranks 32 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -29.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 32 with a Passing DVOA of -27.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -24.3%, ranking #31 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.45 with 18 Red Zone touchdowns in 40 attempts.

Indianapolis Colts Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Colts have a Defense DVOA of -3.70%, ranking 11 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #14 at 2.50% and they’ll need them to show up against Justin Herbert. The Jeff Saturday-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 2.50%, #13 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Chase McLaughlin who has made 27 of 32 field goals this season, a 84.4% field goal percentage, with a long of 52 yards. The Indianapolis Colts fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense:

The Chargers are on the road for this one. Brandon Staley’s squad is 8-6-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Los Angeles Chargers have a betting line of -5 or you could bet them straight up at -215.

24-year-old Justin Herbert will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Oregon. Justin Herbert has a quarterback rating of 91.5 on 21 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He’s started 14 games and thrown for 4019yards, a completion percentage of 67.5.

Austin Ekeler is the lead back for the Chargers running game. The 27-year-old has taken 165 carries and rushed for 692 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 49.4 YPG and he has scored 9 touchdowns with 4 fumbles.

On the passing front, Justin Herbert will look to target Keenan Allen against the Brandon Staley defense. Keenan Allen has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 58 times and made 42 catches for 486 yards. Keenan Allen has a catch percentage of 72.4% and his yards per reception is 11.6.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Los Angeles Chargers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -7.8% which ranks at number 24 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 2.5%, the number 23 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 27 with a Rush DVOA total of -15.2%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 25 Red Zone touchdowns on 51 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.49.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Cameron Dicker to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 47 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Cameron Dicker has made 16 field goals on 47 attempts, a field goal percentage of 94.1%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Chargers with a Defensive DVOA of 1.30% which ranks at 17/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #14 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 2.50%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.40% DVOA which ranks at #13.

Key Match-ups:

  • Nick Foles QB Rating of 0 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Pass DVOA Defense of 2.5%
    The Chargers have 10 interceptions this year and 28 sacks. They are allowing 24.3 points per game.
  • Jonathan Taylor vs. Los Angeles Chargers number 27 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 5.3 yards per carry against the the Los Angeles Chargers and 145.6 per game.
  • Justin Herbert QB Rating of 91.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts #14 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Colts defense has allowed 24.1 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 39 times and picked him off 7 times.
  • Austin Ekeler vs. Indianapolis Colts -11.10% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Colts are giving up 123.7 YPG on 4.1 per carry thus far this season.

Chargers/Colts Bettting Stats:

Chargers Against the spread: 8-5-1
Chargers Over/Under: 6-8-0

Colts Against the spread: 6-8-0
Colts Over/Under: 5-9-0

The best bet is Indianapolis Colts 5 and Under 46.