The 4-10-0 Arizona Cardinals host the 6-8-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The Cardinals have a point spread of 7.5 with a money line of 290. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 40.5 points.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)Record: 6-8-0 |
Arizona Cardinals (7.5)Record: 4-10-0 |
Arizona Cardinals Offense:
The Cardinals are coached by Kliff Kingsbury who has been with the team since 2019. They have a current season record of 4-10-0 after going 11-6 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kliff Kingsbury is no different.
Kyler Murray is the quarterback for the Cardinals. The 25-year-old Oklahoma alum entered the league in 2019 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 11 games and thrown for 2368 yards with a completion percentage of 66.4 percent. Kyler Murray has thrown 14 touchdowns despite 7 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 87.2.
His main target will be DeAndre Hopkins. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 30-year-old target. He has made 63 receptions to date on 86 targets, a catch percentage of 73.3%, for a total of 713 yards. DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 11.3 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Kyler Murray will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Cardinals running game is lead by the 27-year-old James Conner. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 152 carries and rushed for 624 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 56.7 YPG, a number that you know Kliff Kingsbury would love to see him exceed in this game. James Conner has 6 touchdowns this season and 3 fumbles.
Overall, the Arizona Cardinals offense ranks 30 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -17.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 29 with a Passing DVOA of -10.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -16.4%, ranking #28 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.605 with 23 Red Zone touchdowns in 38 attempts.
Arizona Cardinals Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Cardinals have a Defense DVOA of 7.80%, ranking 27 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #20 at 10.00% and they’ll need them to show up against Tom Brady. The Kliff Kingsbury-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 10.00%, #29 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Matt Prater who has made 15 of 17 field goals this season, a 88.2% field goal percentage, with a long of 55 yards. The Arizona Cardinals fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense:
The Buccaneers are on the road for this one. Todd Bowles’s squad is 6-8-0 this season after going 13-4 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a betting line of -7.5 or you could bet them straight up at -360.
45-year-old Tom Brady will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2000 after playing his college days at Michigan. Tom Brady has a quarterback rating of 89.1 on 20 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s started 14 games and thrown for 3897yards, a completion percentage of 66.0.
Leonard Fournette is the lead back for the Buccaneers running game. The 27-year-old has taken 159 carries and rushed for 568 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 43.7 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Tom Brady will look to target Mike Evans against the Todd Bowles defense. Mike Evans has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 107 times and made 64 catches for 888 yards. Mike Evans has a catch percentage of 59.8% and his yards per reception is 13.9.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -0.8% which ranks at number 17 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 17.6%, the number 12 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 30 with a Rush DVOA total of -21.6%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 22 Red Zone touchdowns on 41 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.537.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Ryan Succop to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 54 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Ryan Succop has made 25 field goals on 54 attempts, a field goal percentage of 83.3%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Buccaneers with a Defensive DVOA of -5.80% which ranks at 9/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #20 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 10.00%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -1.50% DVOA which ranks at #29.
Key Match-ups:
- Kyler Murray QB Rating of 87.2 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pass DVOA Defense of 17.6%
The Buccaneers have 8 interceptions this year and 40 sacks. They are allowing 20.6 points per game. - James Conner vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers number 30 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against the the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 120.2 per game. - Tom Brady QB Rating of 89.1 vs. Arizona Cardinals #20 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Cardinals defense has allowed 26.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 31 times and picked him off 9 times. - Leonard Fournette vs. Arizona Cardinals 4.40% DVOA Rush Defense
The Cardinals are giving up 114.3 YPG on 4.6 per carry thus far this season.
Buccaneers/Cardinals Bettting Stats:
Buccaneers Against the spread: 3-10-1
Buccaneers Over/Under: 4-10-0
Cardinals Against the spread: 6-8-0
Cardinals Over/Under: 8-5-1
The best bet is Arizona Cardinals 7.5 and Under 40.5.