Broncos vs. Rams: Week 16 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 December 2022

The 4-10-0 Los Angeles Rams host the 4-10-0 Denver Broncos at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The Rams have a point spread of 2.5 with a money line of 127. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 36.5 points.

Denver Broncos Los Angeles Rams

Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Record: 4-10-0
Points Per Game: 15.6
Points Allowed Per Game: 18.1

Los Angeles Rams (2.5)

Record: 4-10-0
Points Per Game: 16.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.9

Los Angeles Rams Offense:

The Rams are coached by Sean McVay who has been with the team since 2017. They have a current season record of 4-10-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Sean McVay is no different.

Baker Mayfield is the quarterback for the Rams. The 27-year-old Oklahoma alum entered the league in 2018 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 7 games and thrown for 1654 yards with a completion percentage of 58.4 percent. Baker Mayfield has thrown 8 touchdowns despite 7 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 76.1.

His main target will be Van Jefferson. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 15 receptions to date on 29 targets, a catch percentage of 51.7%, for a total of 212 yards. Van Jefferson is averaging 14.1 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Baker Mayfield will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Rams running game is lead by the 22-year-old Kyren Williams. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 27 carries and rushed for 115 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 16.4 YPG, a number that you know Sean McVay would love to see him exceed in this game. Kyren Williams has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Los Angeles Rams offense ranks 27 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -14.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 26 with a Passing DVOA of -4.3%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -16.4%, ranking #29 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.543 with 19 Red Zone touchdowns in 35 attempts.

Los Angeles Rams Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Rams have a Defense DVOA of 0.40%, ranking 15 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #23 at 11.70% and they’ll need them to show up against Russell Wilson. The Sean McVay-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 11.70%, #5 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Matt Gay who has made 21 of 23 field goals this season, a 91.3% field goal percentage, with a long of 58 yards. The Los Angeles Rams fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Denver Broncos Offense:

The Broncos are on the road for this one. Nathaniel Hackett’s squad is 4-10-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Denver Broncos have a betting line of -2.5 or you could bet them straight up at -147.

34-year-old Russell Wilson will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Wisconsin. Russell Wilson has a quarterback rating of 85 on 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He’s started 12 games and thrown for 2805yards, a completion percentage of 60.4.

Latavius Murray is the lead back for the Broncos running game. The 32-year-old has taken 136 carries and rushed for 567 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 56.7 YPG and he has scored 5 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Russell Wilson will look to target Courtland Sutton against the Nathaniel Hackett defense. Courtland Sutton has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 89 times and made 52 catches for 688 yards. Courtland Sutton has a catch percentage of 58.4% and his yards per reception is 13.2.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Denver Broncos offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -14.9% which ranks at number 28 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -3.8%, the number 25 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 26 with a Rush DVOA total of -14.1%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 15 Red Zone touchdowns on 30 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.5.

Denver Broncos Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Brandon McManus to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 55 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Brandon McManus has made 24 field goals on 55 attempts, a field goal percentage of 75.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Broncos with a Defensive DVOA of -13.80% which ranks at 4/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #23 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 11.70%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -20.10% DVOA which ranks at #5.

Key Match-ups:

  • Baker Mayfield QB Rating of 76.1 vs. Denver Broncos Pass DVOA Defense of -3.8%
    The Broncos have 14 interceptions this year and 35 sacks. They are allowing 18.1 points per game.
  • Kyren Williams vs. Denver Broncos number 26 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry against the the Denver Broncos and 114.5 per game.
  • Russell Wilson QB Rating of 85 vs. Los Angeles Rams #23 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Rams defense has allowed 22.9 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 29 times and picked him off 10 times.
  • Latavius Murray vs. Los Angeles Rams -14.90% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Rams are giving up 104.5 YPG on 4 per carry thus far this season.

Broncos/Rams Bettting Stats:

Broncos Against the spread: 6-8-0
Broncos Over/Under: 3-11-0

Rams Against the spread: 5-8-1
Rams Over/Under: 5-9-0

The best bet is Los Angeles Rams 2.5 and Under 36.5.