Bengals vs. Patriots: Week 16 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 December 2022

The 7-7-0 New England Patriots host the 10-4-0 Cincinnati Bengals at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The Patriots have a point spread of 3 with a money line of 145. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 41.5 points.

Cincinnati Bengals New England Patriots

Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Record: 10-4-0
Points Per Game: 26.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 20.6

New England Patriots (3)

Record: 7-7-0
Points Per Game: 21.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.2

New England Patriots Offense:

The Patriots are coached by Bill Belichick who has been with the team since 2000. They have a current season record of 7-7-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Bill Belichick is no different.

Mac Jones is the quarterback for the Patriots. The 24-year-old Alabama alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 11 games and thrown for 2310 yards with a completion percentage of 65.8 percent. Mac Jones has thrown 7 touchdowns despite 8 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 82.6.

His main target will be Jakobi Meyers. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 52 receptions to date on 73 targets, a catch percentage of 71.2%, for a total of 640 yards. Jakobi Meyers is averaging 12.3 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Mac Jones will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Patriots running game is lead by the 24-year-old Rhamondre Stevenson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 183 carries and rushed for 914 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 65.3 YPG, a number that you know Bill Belichick would love to see him exceed in this game. Rhamondre Stevenson has 5 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the New England Patriots offense ranks 25 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -10.8%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 24 with a Passing DVOA of -2.9%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -7.7%, ranking #21 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.378 with 14 Red Zone touchdowns in 37 attempts.

New England Patriots Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Patriots have a Defense DVOA of -14.50%, ranking 2 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #3 at -15.70% and they’ll need them to show up against Joe Burrow. The Bill Belichick-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -15.70%, #9 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Nick Folk who has made 30 of 35 field goals this season, a 85.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The New England Patriots fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense:

The Bengals are on the road for this one. Zac Taylor’s squad is 10-4-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2019 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Cincinnati Bengals have a betting line of -3 or you could bet them straight up at -165.

26-year-old Joe Burrow will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at LSU. Joe Burrow has a quarterback rating of 102.5 on 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He’s started 14 games and thrown for 3885yards, a completion percentage of 68.2.

Joe Mixon is the lead back for the Bengals running game. The 26-year-old has taken 183 carries and rushed for 722 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 60.2 YPG and he has scored 6 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Joe Burrow will look to target Ja’Marr Chase against the Zac Taylor defense. Ja’Marr Chase has 8 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 110 times and made 71 catches for 881 yards. Ja’Marr Chase has a catch percentage of 64.5% and his yards per reception is 12.4.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Cincinnati Bengals offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 13.5% which ranks at number 5 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 25.1%, the number 9 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 6 with a Rush DVOA total of 6.4%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 34 Red Zone touchdowns on 50 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.68.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Evan McPherson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 59 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Evan McPherson has made 21 field goals on 59 attempts, a field goal percentage of 84.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bengals with a Defensive DVOA of -3.60% which ranks at 12/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #3 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -15.70%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.00% DVOA which ranks at #9.

Key Match-ups:

  • Mac Jones QB Rating of 82.6 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Pass DVOA Defense of 25.1%
    The Bengals have 11 interceptions this year and 22 sacks. They are allowing 20.6 points per game.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Cincinnati Bengals number 6 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.2 yards per carry against the the Cincinnati Bengals and 109.6 per game.
  • Joe Burrow QB Rating of 102.5 vs. New England Patriots #3 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Patriots defense has allowed 19.2 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 48 times and picked him off 14 times.
  • Joe Mixon vs. New England Patriots -12.80% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Patriots are giving up 110.3 YPG on 4.2 per carry thus far this season.

Bengals/Patriots Bettting Stats:

Bengals Against the spread: 11-3-0
Bengals Over/Under: 5-8-1

Patriots Against the spread: 7-6-1
Patriots Over/Under: 6-8-0

The best bet is New England Patriots 3 and Under 41.5.