The 7-4-0 San Francisco 49ers host the 8-3-0 Miami Dolphins at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers have a point spread of -4 with a money line of -195. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 46.5 points.
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Miami Dolphins (4)Record: 8-3-0 |
San Francisco 49ers (-4)Record: 7-4-0 |
San Francisco 49ers Offense:
The 49ers are coached by Kyle Shanahan who has been with the team since 2017. They have a current season record of 7-4-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kyle Shanahan is no different.
Jimmy Garoppolo is the quarterback for the 49ers. The 31-year-old Eastern Illinois University alum entered the league in 2014 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 9 games and thrown for 2381 yards with a completion percentage of 67.4 percent. Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown 16 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 103.
His main target will be Deebo Samuel. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 44 receptions to date on 76 targets, a catch percentage of 57.9%, for a total of 511 yards. Deebo Samuel is averaging 11.6 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Jimmy Garoppolo will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The 49ers running game is lead by the 26-year-old Christian McCaffrey. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 143 carries and rushed for 634 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 57.6 YPG, a number that you know Kyle Shanahan would love to see him exceed in this game. Christian McCaffrey has 4 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the San Francisco 49ers offense ranks 10 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 6.5%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 8 with a Passing DVOA of 8.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 28.3%, ranking #5 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.556 with 20 Red Zone touchdowns in 36 attempts.
San Francisco 49ers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the 49ers have a Defense DVOA of -11.3%, ranking 5 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #5 at -8.3% and they’ll need them to show up against Tua Tagovailoa. The Kyle Shanahan-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -8.3%, #10 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Robbie Gould who has made 16 of 19 field goals this season, a 84.2% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The San Francisco 49ers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Miami Dolphins Offense:
The Dolphins are on the road for this one. Mike McDaniel’s squad is 8-3-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Miami Dolphins have a betting line of 4 or you could bet them straight up at 170.
24-year-old Tua Tagovailoa will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Alabama. Tua Tagovailoa has a quarterback rating of 115.7 on 19 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 9 games and thrown for 2564yards, a completion percentage of 69.7.
Jeff Wilson is the lead back for the Dolphins running game. The 27-year-old has taken 131 carries and rushed for 677 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 61.5 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.
On the passing front, Tua Tagovailoa will look to target Tyreek Hill against the Mike McDaniel defense. Tyreek Hill has 4 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 115 times and made 87 catches for 1233 yards. Tyreek Hill has a catch percentage of 75.7% and his yards per reception is 14.2.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Miami Dolphins offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 22.9% which ranks at number 2 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 20.0%, the number 2 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 1 with a Rush DVOA total of 48.9%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 25 Red Zone touchdowns on 39 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.641.
Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Jason Sanders to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 49 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Jason Sanders has made 16 field goals on 49 attempts, a field goal percentage of 80.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Dolphins with a Defensive DVOA of 2.9% which ranks at 17/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #5 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -8.3%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 2.5% DVOA which ranks at #10.
Key Match-ups:
- Jimmy Garoppolo QB Rating of 103 vs. Miami Dolphins Pass DVOA Defense of 20.0%
The Dolphins have 6 interceptions this year and 25 sacks. They are allowing 23.3 points per game. - Christian McCaffrey vs. Miami Dolphins number 1 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against the the Miami Dolphins and 109.5 per game. - Tua Tagovailoa QB Rating of 115.7 vs. San Francisco 49ers #5 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The 49ers defense has allowed 15.7 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 33 times and picked him off 9 times. - Jeff Wilson vs. San Francisco 49ers -2.5% DVOA Rush Defense
The 49ers are giving up 79.5 YPG on 3.3 per carry thus far this season.
Dolphins/49ers Bettting Stats:
Dolphins Against the spread: 6-5-0
Dolphins Over/Under: 5-6-0
49ers Against the spread: 6-5-0
49ers Over/Under: 4-7-0
The best bet is San Francisco 49ers -4 and Under 46.5.