The 4-6-1 Indianapolis Colts host the 3-7-0 Pittsburgh Steelers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Colts have a point spread of -2.5 with a money line of -140. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 39 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Indianapolis Colts Offense:
The Colts are coached by Jeff Saturday who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 4-6-1 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Jeff Saturday is no different.
Matt Ryan is the quarterback for the Colts. The 37-year-old Boston College alum entered the league in 2008 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 9 games and thrown for 2443 yards with a completion percentage of 69.2 percent. Matt Ryan has thrown 10 touchdowns despite 9 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 87.1.
His main target will be Michael Pittman Jr.. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 67 receptions to date on 92 targets, a catch percentage of 72.8%, for a total of 678 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. is averaging 10.1 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Matt Ryan will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Colts running game is lead by the 23-year-old Jonathan Taylor. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 151 carries and rushed for 693 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 86.6 YPG, a number that you know Jeff Saturday would love to see him exceed in this game. Jonathan Taylor has 3 touchdowns this season and 3 fumbles.
Overall, the Indianapolis Colts offense ranks 32 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -26.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 32 with a Passing DVOA of -20.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -21.5%, ranking #31 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.433 with 13 Red Zone touchdowns in 30 attempts.
Indianapolis Colts Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Colts have a Defense DVOA of -6.5%, ranking 10 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #11 at -5.7% and they’ll need them to show up against Kenny Pickett. The Jeff Saturday-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -5.7%, #14 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Chase McLaughlin who has made 19 of 23 field goals this season, a 82.6% field goal percentage, with a long of 52 yards. The Indianapolis Colts fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense:
The Steelers are on the road for this one. Mike Tomlin’s squad is 3-7-0 this season after going 9-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2007 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a betting line of +2.5 or you could bet them straight up at +120.
24-year-old Kenny Pickett will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2022 after playing his college days at Pitt. Kenny Pickett has a quarterback rating of 71.8 on 3 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 1426yards, a completion percentage of 65.4.
Najee Harris is the lead back for the Steelers running game. The 24-year-old has taken 148 carries and rushed for 550 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 55 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.
On the passing front, Kenny Pickett will look to target Diontae Johnson against the Mike Tomlin defense. Diontae Johnson has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 86 times and made 51 catches for 456 yards. Diontae Johnson has a catch percentage of 59.3% and his yards per reception is 8.9.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -6.1% which ranks at number 22 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -5.9%, the number 24 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 21 with a Rush DVOA total of 2.3%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 15 Red Zone touchdowns on 31 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.484.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Chris Boswell to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 59 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Chris Boswell has made 12 field goals on 59 attempts, a field goal percentage of 75.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Steelers with a Defensive DVOA of -0.3% which ranks at 14/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #11 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -5.7%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.1% DVOA which ranks at #14.
- Matt Ryan QB Rating of 87.1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Pass DVOA Defense of -5.9%
The Steelers have 12 interceptions this year and 19 sacks. They are allowing 24.4 points per game.
- Jonathan Taylor vs. Pittsburgh Steelers number 21 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 3.9 yards per carry against the the Pittsburgh Steelers and 103.4 per game.
- Kenny Pickett QB Rating of 71.8 vs. Indianapolis Colts #11 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Colts defense has allowed 20 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 28 times and picked him off 4 times.
- Najee Harris vs. Indianapolis Colts 2.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Colts are giving up 113.5 YPG on 3.8 per carry thus far this season.
Steelers/Colts Bettting Stats:
Steelers Against the spread: 3-4-1
Steelers Over/Under: 3-5-0
Colts Against the spread: 3-6-0
Colts Over/Under: 1-8-0
The best bet is Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 and Under 39.