The 8-3-0 Dallas Cowboys host the 4-7-1 Indianapolis Colts at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys have a point spread of -10 with a money line of -505. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 44 points.
Indianapolis Colts (10)
Dallas Cowboys (-10)
Dallas Cowboys Offense:
The Cowboys are coached by Mike McCarthy who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 8-3-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike McCarthy is no different.
Dak Prescott is the quarterback for the Cowboys. The 29-year-old Mississippi State alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 6 games and thrown for 1393 yards with a completion percentage of 68.1 percent. Dak Prescott has thrown 10 touchdowns despite 6 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 95.3.
His main target will be CeeDee Lamb. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 64 receptions to date on 104 targets, a catch percentage of 61.5%, for a total of 857 yards. CeeDee Lamb is averaging 13.4 yards per catch with 5 touchdowns thus far. Dak Prescott will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Cowboys running game is lead by the 27-year-old Ezekiel Elliott. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 140 carries and rushed for 577 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 64.1 YPG, a number that you know Mike McCarthy would love to see him exceed in this game. Ezekiel Elliott has 7 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Dallas Cowboys offense ranks 15 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 4.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 11 with a Passing DVOA of 5.3%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 13.2%, ranking #16 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.697 with 23 Red Zone touchdowns in 33 attempts.
Dallas Cowboys Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Cowboys have a Defense DVOA of -17.8%, ranking 1 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #2 at -14.8% and they’ll need them to show up against Matt Ryan. The Mike McCarthy-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -14.8%, #1 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Brett Maher who has made 19 of 22 field goals this season, a 86.4% field goal percentage, with a long of 60 yards. The Dallas Cowboys fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Indianapolis Colts Offense:
The Colts are on the road for this one. Jeff Saturday’s squad is 4-7-1 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Indianapolis Colts have a betting line of 10 or you could bet them straight up at 400.
37-year-old Matt Ryan will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2008 after playing his college days at Boston College. Matt Ryan has a quarterback rating of 86.3 on 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He’s started 10 games and thrown for 2642yards, a completion percentage of 68.8.
Jonathan Taylor is the lead back for the Colts running game. The 23-year-old has taken 171 carries and rushed for 779 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 86.6 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 3 fumbles.
On the passing front, Matt Ryan will look to target Michael Pittman Jr. against the Jeff Saturday defense. Michael Pittman Jr. has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 103 times and made 74 catches for 739 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. has a catch percentage of 71.8% and his yards per reception is 10.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Indianapolis Colts offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -27.2% which ranks at number 31 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -23.9%, the number 31 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 31 with a Rush DVOA total of -24.5%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 15 Red Zone touchdowns on 33 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.455.
Indianapolis Colts Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Chase McLaughlin to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 52 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Chase McLaughlin has made 20 field goals on 52 attempts, a field goal percentage of 80.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Colts with a Defensive DVOA of -5.0% which ranks at 13/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #2 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -14.8%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -5.4% DVOA which ranks at #1.
- Dak Prescott QB Rating of 95.3 vs. Indianapolis Colts Pass DVOA Defense of -23.9%
The Colts have 4 interceptions this year and 31 sacks. They are allowing 20.3 points per game.
- Ezekiel Elliott vs. Indianapolis Colts number 31 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 3.9 yards per carry against the the Indianapolis Colts and 118.3 per game.
- Matt Ryan QB Rating of 86.3 vs. Dallas Cowboys #2 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Cowboys defense has allowed 17 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 45 times and picked him off 7 times.
- Jonathan Taylor vs. Dallas Cowboys -21.7% DVOA Rush Defense
The Cowboys are giving up 131.9 YPG on 4.7 per carry thus far this season.
Colts/Cowboys Bettting Stats:
Colts Against the spread: 5-7-0
Colts Over/Under: 3-9-0
Cowboys Against the spread: 7-4-0
Cowboys Over/Under: 5-6-0
The best bet is Dallas Cowboys -10 and Under 44.