The 4-7-0 Las Vegas Raiders host the 6-5-0 Los Angeles Chargers at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada. The Raiders have a point spread of -1 with a money line of -117. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 51 points.
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Los Angeles Chargers (1)Record: 6-5-0 |
Las Vegas Raiders (-1)Record: 4-7-0 |
Las Vegas Raiders Offense:
The Raiders are coached by Josh McDaniels who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 4-7-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Josh McDaniels is no different.
Derek Carr is the quarterback for the Raiders. The 31-year-old Fresno State alum entered the league in 2014 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 11 games and thrown for 2730 yards with a completion percentage of 63.0 percent. Derek Carr has thrown 18 touchdowns despite 7 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 92.3.
His main target will be Davante Adams. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 30-year-old target. He has made 71 receptions to date on 123 targets, a catch percentage of 57.7%, for a total of 999 yards. Davante Adams is averaging 14.1 yards per catch with 10 touchdowns thus far. Derek Carr will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Raiders running game is lead by the 24-year-old Josh Jacobs. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 216 carries and rushed for 1159 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 105.4 YPG, a number that you know Josh McDaniels would love to see him exceed in this game. Josh Jacobs has 9 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Las Vegas Raiders offense ranks 11 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 6.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 9 with a Passing DVOA of 8.2%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 13.1%, ranking #17 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.5 with 16 Red Zone touchdowns in 32 attempts.
Las Vegas Raiders Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Raiders have a Defense DVOA of 17.9%, ranking 32 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #31 at 16.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Justin Herbert. The Josh McDaniels-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 16.5%, #32 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Daniel Carlson who has made 23 of 25 field goals this season, a 92.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 57 yards. The Las Vegas Raiders fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense:
The Chargers are on the road for this one. Brandon Staley’s squad is 6-5-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Los Angeles Chargers have a betting line of 1 or you could bet them straight up at -103.
24-year-old Justin Herbert will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Oregon. Justin Herbert has a quarterback rating of 92.7 on 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s started 11 games and thrown for 3004yards, a completion percentage of 67.4.
Austin Ekeler is the lead back for the Chargers running game. The 27-year-old has taken 128 carries and rushed for 554 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 50.4 YPG and he has scored 7 touchdowns with 3 fumbles.
On the passing front, Justin Herbert will look to target Keenan Allen against the Brandon Staley defense. Keenan Allen has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 21 times and made 16 catches for 220 yards. Keenan Allen has a catch percentage of 76.2% and his yards per reception is 13.8.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Los Angeles Chargers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -7.3% which ranks at number 23 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -6.0%, the number 23 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 21 with a Rush DVOA total of 4.7%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 21 Red Zone touchdowns on 39 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.538.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Cameron Dicker to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 47 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Cameron Dicker has made 10 field goals on 47 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Chargers with a Defensive DVOA of 4.7% which ranks at 22/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #31 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 16.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 5.1% DVOA which ranks at #32.
Key Match-ups:
- Derek Carr QB Rating of 92.3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Pass DVOA Defense of -6.0%
The Chargers have 8 interceptions this year and 22 sacks. They are allowing 25.6 points per game. - Josh Jacobs vs. Los Angeles Chargers number 21 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5.4 yards per carry against the the Los Angeles Chargers and 151.4 per game. - Justin Herbert QB Rating of 92.7 vs. Las Vegas Raiders #31 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Raiders defense has allowed 25.1 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 16 times and picked him off 4 times. - Austin Ekeler vs. Las Vegas Raiders 33.1% DVOA Rush Defense
The Raiders are giving up 117.6 YPG on 4.3 per carry thus far this season.
Chargers/Raiders Bettting Stats:
Chargers Against the spread: 7-4-0
Chargers Over/Under: 6-5-0
Raiders Against the spread: 5-6-0
Raiders Over/Under: 6-4-1
The best bet is Las Vegas Raiders -1 and Under 51.