The 7-4-0 Baltimore Ravens host the 3-8-0 Denver Broncos at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. The Ravens have a point spread of -8.5 with a money line of -380. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 39.5 points.
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Denver Broncos (8.5)Record: 3-8-0 |
Baltimore Ravens (-8.5)Record: 7-4-0 |
Baltimore Ravens Offense:
The Ravens are coached by John Harbaugh who has been with the team since 2008. They have a current season record of 7-4-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly John Harbaugh is no different.
Lamar Jackson is the quarterback for the Ravens. The 25-year-old Louisville alum entered the league in 2018 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 11 games and thrown for 2231 yards with a completion percentage of 62.1 percent. Lamar Jackson has thrown 17 touchdowns despite 7 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 91.3.
His main target will be Mark Andrews. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 52 receptions to date on 79 targets, a catch percentage of 65.8%, for a total of 601 yards. Mark Andrews is averaging 11.6 yards per catch with 5 touchdowns thus far. Lamar Jackson will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Ravens running game is lead by the 27-year-old Gus Edwards. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 43 carries and rushed for 183 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 61 YPG, a number that you know John Harbaugh would love to see him exceed in this game. Gus Edwards has 3 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Baltimore Ravens offense ranks 5 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 14.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 7 with a Passing DVOA of 11.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 26.8%, ranking #7 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.512 with 22 Red Zone touchdowns in 43 attempts.
Baltimore Ravens Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Ravens have a Defense DVOA of -8.4%, ranking 9 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #6 at -8.1% and they’ll need them to show up against Russell Wilson. The John Harbaugh-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -8.1%, #8 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Justin Tucker who has made 24 of 27 field goals this season, a 88.9% field goal percentage, with a long of 58 yards. The Baltimore Ravens fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Denver Broncos Offense:
The Broncos are on the road for this one. Nathaniel Hackett’s squad is 3-8-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Denver Broncos have a betting line of 8.5 or you could bet them straight up at 310.
34-year-old Russell Wilson will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Wisconsin. Russell Wilson has a quarterback rating of 82.3 on 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 10 games and thrown for 2369yards, a completion percentage of 58.9.
Latavius Murray is the lead back for the Broncos running game. The 32-year-old has taken 87 carries and rushed for 358 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 51.1 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Russell Wilson will look to target Courtland Sutton against the Nathaniel Hackett defense. Courtland Sutton has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 88 times and made 52 catches for 688 yards. Courtland Sutton has a catch percentage of 59.1% and his yards per reception is 13.2.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Denver Broncos offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -17.6% which ranks at number 29 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -14.0%, the number 28 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 27 with a Rush DVOA total of -6.5%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 9 Red Zone touchdowns on 24 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.375.
Denver Broncos Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Brandon McManus to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 55 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Brandon McManus has made 20 field goals on 55 attempts, a field goal percentage of 76.9%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Broncos with a Defensive DVOA of -9.3% which ranks at 8/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #6 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -8.1%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -6.2% DVOA which ranks at #8.
Key Match-ups:
- Lamar Jackson QB Rating of 91.3 vs. Denver Broncos Pass DVOA Defense of -14.0%
The Broncos have 6 interceptions this year and 26 sacks. They are allowing 17.6 points per game. - Gus Edwards vs. Denver Broncos number 27 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the the Denver Broncos and 121.6 per game. - Russell Wilson QB Rating of 82.3 vs. Baltimore Ravens #6 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Ravens defense has allowed 20.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 35 times and picked him off 11 times. - Latavius Murray vs. Baltimore Ravens -5.7% DVOA Rush Defense
The Ravens are giving up 82 YPG on 3.9 per carry thus far this season.
Broncos/Ravens Bettting Stats:
Broncos Against the spread: 3-8-0
Broncos Over/Under: 1-10-0
Ravens Against the spread: 5-6-0
Ravens Over/Under: 4-7-0
The best bet is Baltimore Ravens -8.5 and Under 39.5.