The 6-5-0 New England Patriots host the 8-3-0 Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The Patriots have a point spread of 3.5 with a money line of 165. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43.5 points.
Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
New England Patriots (3.5)
New England Patriots Offense:
The Patriots are coached by Bill Belichick who has been with the team since 2000. They have a current season record of 6-5-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Bill Belichick is no different.
Mac Jones is the quarterback for the Patriots. The 24-year-old Alabama alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 8 games and thrown for 1768 yards with a completion percentage of 69.2 percent. Mac Jones has thrown 6 touchdowns despite 7 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 87.3.
His main target will be Jakobi Meyers. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 47 receptions to date on 62 targets, a catch percentage of 75.8%, for a total of 571 yards. Jakobi Meyers is averaging 12.1 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Mac Jones will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Patriots running game is lead by the 24-year-old Rhamondre Stevenson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 151 carries and rushed for 680 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 61.8 YPG, a number that you know Bill Belichick would love to see him exceed in this game. Rhamondre Stevenson has 4 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the New England Patriots offense ranks 25 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -9.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 25 with a Passing DVOA of -8.5%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 2.9%, ranking #22 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.387 with 12 Red Zone touchdowns in 31 attempts.
New England Patriots Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Patriots have a Defense DVOA of -17.8%, ranking 2 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #1 at -16.2% and they’ll need them to show up against Josh Allen. The Bill Belichick-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -16.2%, #3 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Nick Folk who has made 24 of 28 field goals this season, a 85.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 52 yards. The New England Patriots fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Buffalo Bills Offense:
The Bills are on the road for this one. Sean McDermott’s squad is 8-3-0 this season after going 11-6 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Buffalo Bills have a betting line of -3.5 or you could bet them straight up at -190.
26-year-old Josh Allen will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2018 after playing his college days at Wyoming. Josh Allen has a quarterback rating of 95.2 on 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He’s started 11 games and thrown for 3183yards, a completion percentage of 63.9.
Devin Singletary is the lead back for the Bills running game. The 25-year-old has taken 124 carries and rushed for 552 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 50.2 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.
On the passing front, Josh Allen will look to target Stefon Diggs against the Sean McDermott defense. Stefon Diggs has 9 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 119 times and made 84 catches for 1110 yards. Stefon Diggs has a catch percentage of 70.6% and his yards per reception is 13.2.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Buffalo Bills offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 14.0% which ranks at number 6 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 12.7%, the number 6 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 3 with a Rush DVOA total of 30.2%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 23 Red Zone touchdowns on 43 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.535.
Buffalo Bills Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Tyler Bass to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 56 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Tyler Bass has made 23 field goals on 56 attempts, a field goal percentage of 88.5%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bills with a Defensive DVOA of -14.0% which ranks at 3/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #1 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -16.2%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -10.5% DVOA which ranks at #3.
- Mac Jones QB Rating of 87.3 vs. Buffalo Bills Pass DVOA Defense of 12.7%
The Bills have 13 interceptions this year and 30 sacks. They are allowing 18.1 points per game.
- Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Buffalo Bills number 3 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.2 yards per carry against the the Buffalo Bills and 105.6 per game.
- Josh Allen QB Rating of 95.2 vs. New England Patriots #1 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Patriots defense has allowed 18.4 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 37 times and picked him off 12 times.
- Devin Singletary vs. New England Patriots -20.4% DVOA Rush Defense
The Patriots are giving up 109.3 YPG on 4.2 per carry thus far this season.
Bills/Patriots Bettting Stats:
Bills Against the spread: 4-6-1
Bills Over/Under: 3-8-0
Patriots Against the spread: 6-4-1
Patriots Over/Under: 5-6-0
The best bet is Buffalo Bills -3.5 and Under 43.5.