Texans vs. Dolphins: Week 12 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 24 November 2022

The 7-3-0 Miami Dolphins host the 1-8-1 Houston Texans at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Dolphins have a point spread of -13.5 with a money line of -710. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 47 points.

Houston Texans Miami Dolphins

Houston Texans (+13.5)

Record: 1-8-1
Points Per Game: 15.9
Points Allowed Per Game: 23

Miami Dolphins (-13.5)

Record: 7-3-0
Points Per Game: 25.2
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.1

Miami Dolphins Offense:

The Dolphins are coached by Mike McDaniel who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 7-3-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike McDaniel is no different.

Tua Tagovailoa is the quarterback for the Dolphins. The 24-year-old Alabama alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 8 games and thrown for 2265 yards with a completion percentage of 71.0 percent. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 18 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 118.4.

His main target will be Tyreek Hill. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 28-year-old target. He has made 81 receptions to date on 106 targets, a catch percentage of 76.4%, for a total of 1148 yards. Tyreek Hill is averaging 14.2 yards per catch with 4 touchdowns thus far. Tua Tagovailoa will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Dolphins running game is lead by the 30-year-old Raheem Mostert. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 118 carries and rushed for 543 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 54.3 YPG, a number that you know Mike McDaniel would love to see him exceed in this game. Raheem Mostert has 3 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Miami Dolphins offense ranks 2 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 25.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 2 with a Passing DVOA of 19.6%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 52.5%, ranking #1 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.676 with 23 Red Zone touchdowns in 34 attempts.

Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Dolphins have a Defense DVOA of 7.2%, ranking 23 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #24 at 6.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Davis Mills. The Mike McDaniel-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 6.4%, #29 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Jason Sanders who has made 13 of 17 field goals this season, a 76.5% field goal percentage, with a long of 49 yards. The Miami Dolphins fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Houston Texans Offense:

The Texans are on the road for this one. Lovie Smith’s squad is 1-8-1 this season after going 4-13 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Houston Texans have a betting line of +13.5 or you could bet them straight up at +530.

24-year-old Davis Mills will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Stanford. Davis Mills has a quarterback rating of 78.1 on 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He’s started 10 games and thrown for 2144yards, a completion percentage of 61.9.

Dameon Pierce is the lead back for the Texans running game. The 22-year-old has taken 175 carries and rushed for 780 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 78 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 3 fumbles.

On the passing front, Davis Mills will look to target Brandin Cooks against the Lovie Smith defense. Brandin Cooks has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 66 times and made 39 catches for 461 yards. Brandin Cooks has a catch percentage of 59.1% and his yards per reception is 11.8.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Houston Texans offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -22.1% which ranks at number 31 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -19.1%, the number 31 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 30 with a Rush DVOA total of -18.6%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 12 Red Zone touchdowns on 27 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.444.

Houston Texans Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Ka’imi Fairbairn to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 55 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Ka’imi Fairbairn has made 18 field goals on 55 attempts, a field goal percentage of 90.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Texans with a Defensive DVOA of 11.4% which ranks at 29/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #24 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 6.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 8.4% DVOA which ranks at #29.

Key Match-ups:

  • Tua Tagovailoa QB Rating of 118.4 vs. Houston Texans Pass DVOA Defense of -19.1%
    The Texans have 7 interceptions this year and 22 sacks. They are allowing 23 points per game.
  • Raheem Mostert vs. Houston Texans number 30 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 5.1 yards per carry against the the Houston Texans and 178.9 per game.
  • Davis Mills QB Rating of 78.1 vs. Miami Dolphins #24 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Dolphins defense has allowed 24.1 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 20 times and picked him off 4 times.
  • Dameon Pierce vs. Miami Dolphins 20.5% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Dolphins are giving up 116.9 YPG on 4.6 per carry thus far this season.

Texans/Dolphins Bettting Stats:

Texans Against the spread: 4-3-1
Texans Over/Under: 4-4-0

Dolphins Against the spread: 4-5-0
Dolphins Over/Under: 4-5-0

The best bet is Miami Dolphins -13.5 and Under 47.

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