49ers vs. Cardinals: Week 11 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 17 November 2022

The 4-6-0 Arizona Cardinals host the 5-4-0 San Francisco 49ers at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The Cardinals have a point spread of 8 with a money line of +295. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43.5 points.

San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers (-8)

Record: 5-4-0
Points Per Game: 22
Points Allowed Per Game: 18.1

Arizona Cardinals (8)

Record: 4-6-0
Points Per Game: 23
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.8

Arizona Cardinals Offense:

The Cardinals are coached by Kliff Kingsbury who has been with the team since 2019. They have a current season record of 4-6-0 after going 11-6 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kliff Kingsbury is no different.

Kyler Murray is the quarterback for the Cardinals. The 25-year-old Oklahoma alum entered the league in 2019 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 9 games and thrown for 2168 yards with a completion percentage of 66.7 percent. Kyler Murray has thrown 12 touchdowns despite 6 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 86.9.

His main target will be Marquise Brown. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 43 receptions to date on 64 targets, a catch percentage of 67.2%, for a total of 485 yards. Marquise Brown is averaging 11.3 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Kyler Murray will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Cardinals running game is lead by the 27-year-old James Conner. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 82 carries and rushed for 314 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 44.9 YPG, a number that you know Kliff Kingsbury would love to see him exceed in this game. James Conner has 3 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Arizona Cardinals offense ranks 28 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -16.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 29 with a Passing DVOA of -12.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -8.8%, ranking #29 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.6 with 18 Red Zone touchdowns in 30 attempts.

Arizona Cardinals Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Cardinals have a Defense DVOA of 3.3%, ranking 21 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #21 at 2.2% and they’ll need them to show up against Jimmy Garoppolo. The Kliff Kingsbury-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 2.2%, #19 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Matt Prater who has made 8 of 8 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 49 yards. The Arizona Cardinals fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

San Francisco 49ers Offense:

The 49ers are on the road for this one. Kyle Shanahan’s squad is 5-4-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The San Francisco 49ers have a betting line of -8 or you could bet them straight up at -365.

31-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2014 after playing his college days at Eastern Illinois University. Jimmy Garoppolo has a quarterback rating of 100 on 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 1931yards, a completion percentage of 66.8.

Christian McCaffrey is the lead back for the 49ers running game. The 26-year-old has taken 125 carries and rushed for 563 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 62.6 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Jimmy Garoppolo will look to target Deebo Samuel against the Kyle Shanahan defense. Deebo Samuel has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 60 times and made 34 catches for 411 yards. Deebo Samuel has a catch percentage of 56.7% and his yards per reception is 12.1.

According to FootballOutsiders, the San Francisco 49ers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 2.9% which ranks at number 14 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 3.6%, the number 12 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 7 with a Rush DVOA total of 23.3%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 17 Red Zone touchdowns on 31 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.548.

San Francisco 49ers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Robbie Gould to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 51 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Robbie Gould has made 13 field goals on 51 attempts, a field goal percentage of 81.3%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the 49ers with a Defensive DVOA of -9.3% which ranks at 8/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #21 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 2.2%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -4.7% DVOA which ranks at #19.

Key Match-ups:

  • Kyler Murray QB Rating of 86.9 vs. San Francisco 49ers Pass DVOA Defense of 3.6%
    The 49ers have 7 interceptions this year and 29 sacks. They are allowing 18.1 points per game.
  • James Conner vs. San Francisco 49ers number 7 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 3.4 yards per carry against the the San Francisco 49ers and 82.7 per game.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo QB Rating of 100 vs. Arizona Cardinals #21 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Cardinals defense has allowed 25.8 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 19 times and picked him off 7 times.
  • Christian McCaffrey vs. Arizona Cardinals 8.2% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Cardinals are giving up 110.5 YPG on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.

49ers/Cardinals Bettting Stats:

49ers Against the spread: 4-4-0
49ers Over/Under: 3-5-0

Cardinals Against the spread: 4-5-0
Cardinals Over/Under: 4-4-1

The best bet is Arizona Cardinals 8 and Under 43.5.

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