Saints vs. 49ers: Week 12 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 24 November 2022

The 6-4-0 San Francisco 49ers host the 4-7-0 New Orleans Saints at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers have a point spread of -9.5 with a money line of -425. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43 points.

New Orleans Saints San Francisco 49ers

New Orleans Saints (+9.5)

Record: 4-7-0
Points Per Game: 22.6
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.3

San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

Record: 6-4-0
Points Per Game: 23.6
Points Allowed Per Game: 17.3

San Francisco 49ers Offense:

The 49ers are coached by Kyle Shanahan who has been with the team since 2017. They have a current season record of 6-4-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kyle Shanahan is no different.

Jimmy Garoppolo is the quarterback for the 49ers. The 31-year-old Eastern Illinois University alum entered the league in 2014 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 8 games and thrown for 2159 yards with a completion percentage of 67.0 percent. Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown 15 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 104.1.

His main target will be Deebo Samuel. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 41 receptions to date on 69 targets, a catch percentage of 59.4%, for a total of 468 yards. Deebo Samuel is averaging 11.4 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Jimmy Garoppolo will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The 49ers running game is lead by the 26-year-old Christian McCaffrey. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 132 carries and rushed for 602 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 60.2 YPG, a number that you know Kyle Shanahan would love to see him exceed in this game. Christian McCaffrey has 4 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the San Francisco 49ers offense ranks 11 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 7.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 8 with a Passing DVOA of 8.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 30.0%, ranking #5 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.576 with 19 Red Zone touchdowns in 33 attempts.

San Francisco 49ers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the 49ers have a Defense DVOA of -10.8%, ranking 7 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #8 at -6.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Andy Dalton. The Kyle Shanahan-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -6.5%, #9 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Robbie Gould who has made 14 of 17 field goals this season, a 82.4% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The San Francisco 49ers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

New Orleans Saints Offense:

The Saints are on the road for this one. Dennis Allen’s squad is 4-7-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The New Orleans Saints have a betting line of +9.5 or you could bet them straight up at +345.

35-year-old Andy Dalton will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2011 after playing his college days at TCU. Andy Dalton has a quarterback rating of 96.4 on 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s started 8 games and thrown for 1819yards, a completion percentage of 66.9.

Alvin Kamara is the lead back for the Saints running game. The 27-year-old has taken 124 carries and rushed for 511 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 56.8 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.

On the passing front, Andy Dalton will look to target Chris Olave against the Dennis Allen defense. Chris Olave has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 83 times and made 51 catches for 760 yards. Chris Olave has a catch percentage of 61.4% and his yards per reception is 14.9.

According to FootballOutsiders, the New Orleans Saints offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -6.9% which ranks at number 23 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -5.3%, the number 23 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 24 with a Rush DVOA total of -1.4%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 21 Red Zone touchdowns on 35 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.6.

New Orleans Saints Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Wil Lutz to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 60 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Wil Lutz has made 17 field goals on 60 attempts, a field goal percentage of 77.3%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Saints with a Defensive DVOA of 1.0% which ranks at 15/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #8 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -6.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.4% DVOA which ranks at #9.

Key Match-ups:

  • Jimmy Garoppolo QB Rating of 104.1 vs. New Orleans Saints Pass DVOA Defense of -5.3%
    The Saints have 2 interceptions this year and 32 sacks. They are allowing 24.3 points per game.
  • Christian McCaffrey vs. New Orleans Saints number 24 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the the New Orleans Saints and 132.1 per game.
  • Andy Dalton QB Rating of 96.4 vs. San Francisco 49ers #8 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The 49ers defense has allowed 17.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 32 times and picked him off 9 times.
  • Alvin Kamara vs. San Francisco 49ers -3.9% DVOA Rush Defense
    The 49ers are giving up 81.1 YPG on 3.4 per carry thus far this season.

Saints/49ers Bettting Stats:

Saints Against the spread: 3-6-0
Saints Over/Under: 5-4-0

49ers Against the spread: 4-4-0
49ers Over/Under: 3-5-0

The best bet is San Francisco 49ers -9.5 and Under 43.

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