The 3-7-0 Jacksonville Jaguars host the 7-3-0 Baltimore Ravens at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida. The Jaguars have a point spread of +4.0 with a money line of +165. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43.5 points.
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Baltimore Ravens (-4.0)Record: 7-3-0 |
Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.0)Record: 3-7-0 |
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense:
The Jaguars are coached by Doug Pederson who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 3-7-0 after going 3-14 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Doug Pederson is no different.
Trevor Lawrence is the quarterback for the Jaguars. The 23-year-old Clemson alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 10 games and thrown for 2334 yards with a completion percentage of 65.2 percent. Trevor Lawrence has thrown 13 touchdowns despite 6 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 89.7.
His main target will be Christian Kirk. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 52 receptions to date on 82 targets, a catch percentage of 63.4%, for a total of 679 yards. Christian Kirk is averaging 13.1 yards per catch with 7 touchdowns thus far. Trevor Lawrence will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Jaguars running game is lead by the 23-year-old Travis Etienne. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 131 carries and rushed for 725 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 72.5 YPG, a number that you know Doug Pederson would love to see him exceed in this game. Travis Etienne has 4 touchdowns this season and 3 fumbles.
Overall, the Jacksonville Jaguars offense ranks 13 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 6.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 16 with a Passing DVOA of 3.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 20.2%, ranking #11 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.541 with 20 Red Zone touchdowns in 37 attempts.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Jaguars have a Defense DVOA of 9.7%, ranking 26 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #30 at 10.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Lamar Jackson. The Doug Pederson-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 10.5%, #31 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Riley Patterson who has made 14 of 18 field goals this season, a 77.8% field goal percentage, with a long of 52 yards. The Jacksonville Jaguars fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Baltimore Ravens Offense:
The Ravens are on the road for this one. John Harbaugh’s squad is 7-3-0 this season after going 8-9 last year. He has been at the helm since 2008 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Baltimore Ravens have a betting line of -4.0 or you could bet them straight up at -190.
25-year-old Lamar Jackson will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2018 after playing his college days at Louisville. Lamar Jackson has a quarterback rating of 91.7 on 16 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s started 10 games and thrown for 1977yards, a completion percentage of 63.4.
Kenyan Drake is the lead back for the Ravens running game. The 28-year-old has taken 83 carries and rushed for 390 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 48.8 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Lamar Jackson will look to target Mark Andrews against the John Harbaugh defense. Mark Andrews has 5 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 72 times and made 48 catches for 551 yards. Mark Andrews has a catch percentage of 66.7% and his yards per reception is 11.5.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Baltimore Ravens offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 15.3% which ranks at number 5 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 10.7%, the number 7 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 8 with a Rush DVOA total of 26.2%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 20 Red Zone touchdowns on 38 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.526.
Baltimore Ravens Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Justin Tucker to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 58 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Justin Tucker has made 20 field goals on 58 attempts, a field goal percentage of 90.9%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Ravens with a Defensive DVOA of -6.4% which ranks at 11/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #30 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 10.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -6.1% DVOA which ranks at #31.
Key Match-ups:
- Trevor Lawrence QB Rating of 89.7 vs. Baltimore Ravens Pass DVOA Defense of 10.7%
The Ravens have 11 interceptions this year and 31 sacks. They are allowing 19.9 points per game. - Travis Etienne vs. Baltimore Ravens number 8 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.1 yards per carry against the the Baltimore Ravens and 86.4 per game. - Lamar Jackson QB Rating of 91.7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars #30 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Jaguars defense has allowed 20.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 16 times and picked him off 9 times. - Kenyan Drake vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 21.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Jaguars are giving up 110.1 YPG on 4.2 per carry thus far this season.
Ravens/Jaguars Bettting Stats:
Ravens Against the spread: 5-4-0
Ravens Over/Under: 3-6-0
Jaguars Against the spread: 3-6-0
Jaguars Over/Under: 4-5-0
The best bet is Baltimore Ravens -4.0 and Under 43.5.