Rams vs. Chiefs: Week 12 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 24 November 2022

The 8-2-0 Kansas City Chiefs host the 3-7-0 Los Angeles Rams at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The Chiefs have a point spread of -15.5 with a money line of -1400. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42 points.

Los Angeles Rams Kansas City Chiefs

Los Angeles Rams (+15.5)

Record: 3-7-0
Points Per Game: 16.8
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.7

Kansas City Chiefs (-15.5)

Record: 8-2-0
Points Per Game: 30
Points Allowed Per Game: 23.3

Kansas City Chiefs Offense:

The Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid who has been with the team since 2013. They have a current season record of 8-2-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Andy Reid is no different.

Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback for the Chiefs. The 27-year-old Texas Tech alum entered the league in 2017 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 10 games and thrown for 3265 yards with a completion percentage of 66.3 percent. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 28 touchdowns despite 7 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 107.3.

His main target will be JuJu Smith-Schuster. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 46 receptions to date on 64 targets, a catch percentage of 71.9%, for a total of 615 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster is averaging 13.4 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Patrick Mahomes will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Chiefs running game is lead by the 23-year-old Clyde Edwards-Helaire. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 71 carries and rushed for 302 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 30.2 YPG, a number that you know Andy Reid would love to see him exceed in this game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 3 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Kansas City Chiefs offense ranks 1 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 27.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 1 with a Passing DVOA of 25.6%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 46.5%, ranking #2 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.721 with 31 Red Zone touchdowns in 43 attempts.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Chiefs have a Defense DVOA of 6.5%, ranking 22 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #22 at 5.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Matthew Stafford. The Andy Reid-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 5.9%, #20 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Harrison Butker who has made 8 of 11 field goals this season, a 72.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 62 yards. The Kansas City Chiefs fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Los Angeles Rams Offense:

The Rams are on the road for this one. Sean McVay’s squad is 3-7-0 this season after going 12-5 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Los Angeles Rams have a betting line of +15.5 or you could bet them straight up at +825.

34-year-old Matthew Stafford will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2009 after playing his college days at Georgia. Matthew Stafford has a quarterback rating of 87.4 on 10 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’s started 9 games and thrown for 2087yards, a completion percentage of 68.0.

Darrell Henderson is the lead back for the Rams running game. The 25-year-old has taken 70 carries and rushed for 283 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 28.3 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Matthew Stafford will look to target Cooper Kupp against the Sean McVay defense. Cooper Kupp has 6 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 98 times and made 75 catches for 812 yards. Cooper Kupp has a catch percentage of 76.5% and his yards per reception is 10.8.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Los Angeles Rams offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -10.9% which ranks at number 25 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -6.2%, the number 25 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 22 with a Rush DVOA total of 0.7%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 14 Red Zone touchdowns on 28 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.5.

Los Angeles Rams Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Matt Gay to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 58 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Matt Gay has made 14 field goals on 58 attempts, a field goal percentage of 93.3%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Rams with a Defensive DVOA of 1.2% which ranks at 16/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #22 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 5.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.8% DVOA which ranks at #20.

Key Match-ups:

  • Patrick Mahomes QB Rating of 107.3 vs. Los Angeles Rams Pass DVOA Defense of -6.2%
    The Rams have 5 interceptions this year and 22 sacks. They are allowing 22.7 points per game.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Los Angeles Rams number 22 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 3.9 yards per carry against the the Los Angeles Rams and 95.3 per game.
  • Matthew Stafford QB Rating of 87.4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs #22 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Chiefs defense has allowed 23.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 32 times and picked him off 4 times.
  • Darrell Henderson vs. Kansas City Chiefs 11.6% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Chiefs are giving up 100.6 YPG on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.

Rams/Chiefs Bettting Stats:

Rams Against the spread: 2-5-1
Rams Over/Under: 2-6-0

Chiefs Against the spread: 3-5-0
Chiefs Over/Under: 4-4-0

The best bet is Kansas City Chiefs -15.5 and Under 42.

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