The 8-2-0 Minnesota Vikings host the 6-4-0 New England Patriots at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Vikings have a point spread of -3.0 with a money line of -145. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42.5 points.
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New England Patriots (+3.0)Record: 6-4-0 |
Minnesota Vikings (-3.0)Record: 8-2-0 |
Minnesota Vikings Offense:
The Vikings are coached by Kevin O’Connell who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 8-2-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kevin O’Connell is no different.
Kirk Cousins is the quarterback for the Vikings. The 34-year-old Michigan State alum entered the league in 2012 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 10 games and thrown for 2461 yards with a completion percentage of 63.4 percent. Kirk Cousins has thrown 14 touchdowns despite 8 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 85.6.
His main target will be Justin Jefferson. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 72 receptions to date on 105 targets, a catch percentage of 68.6%, for a total of 1093 yards. Justin Jefferson is averaging 15.2 yards per catch with 4 touchdowns thus far. Kirk Cousins will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Vikings running game is lead by the 27-year-old Dalvin Cook. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 156 carries and rushed for 799 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 79.9 YPG, a number that you know Kevin O’Connell would love to see him exceed in this game. Dalvin Cook has 6 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Minnesota Vikings offense ranks 19 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -4.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 19 with a Passing DVOA of -3.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -0.3%, ranking #23 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.583 with 21 Red Zone touchdowns in 36 attempts.
Minnesota Vikings Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Vikings have a Defense DVOA of 2.8%, ranking 18 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #19 at 2.2% and they’ll need them to show up against Mac Jones. The Kevin O’Connell-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 2.2%, #19 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Greg Joseph who has made 14 of 19 field goals this season, a 73.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 56 yards. The Minnesota Vikings fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
New England Patriots Offense:
The Patriots are on the road for this one. Bill Belichick’s squad is 6-4-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2000 and is looking to grab a road win here. The New England Patriots have a betting line of +3.0 or you could bet them straight up at +125.
24-year-old Mac Jones will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Alabama. Mac Jones has a quarterback rating of 80.8 on 4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 1386yards, a completion percentage of 68.7.
Rhamondre Stevenson is the lead back for the Patriots running game. The 24-year-old has taken 144 carries and rushed for 644 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 64.4 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Mac Jones will look to target Jakobi Meyers against the Bill Belichick defense. Jakobi Meyers has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 58 times and made 44 catches for 509 yards. Jakobi Meyers has a catch percentage of 75.9% and his yards per reception is 11.6.
According to FootballOutsiders, the New England Patriots offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -12.8% which ranks at number 26 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -11.0%, the number 27 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 26 with a Rush DVOA total of -3.3%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 12 Red Zone touchdowns on 28 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.429.
New England Patriots Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Nick Folk to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 52 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Nick Folk has made 20 field goals on 52 attempts, a field goal percentage of 83.3%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Patriots with a Defensive DVOA of -19.7% which ranks at 1/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #19 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 2.2%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -16.3% DVOA which ranks at #19.
Key Match-ups:
- Kirk Cousins QB Rating of 85.6 vs. New England Patriots Pass DVOA Defense of -11.0%
The Patriots have 11 interceptions this year and 36 sacks. They are allowing 16.9 points per game. - Dalvin Cook vs. New England Patriots number 26 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against the the New England Patriots and 114.5 per game. - Mac Jones QB Rating of 80.8 vs. Minnesota Vikings #19 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Vikings defense has allowed 23.1 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 26 times and picked him off 10 times. - Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Minnesota Vikings 10.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Vikings are giving up 121.6 YPG on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.
Patriots/Vikings Bettting Stats:
Patriots Against the spread: 5-3-1
Patriots Over/Under: 4-5-0
Vikings Against the spread: 3-4-1
Vikings Over/Under: 4-4-0
The best bet is New England Patriots +3.0 and Under 42.5.