The 6-5-0 Washington Commanders host the 5-6-0 Atlanta Falcons at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. The Commanders have a point spread of -4.5 with a money line of -195. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 40.5 points.
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Atlanta Falcons (+4.5)Record: 5-6-0 |
Washington Commanders (-4.5)Record: 6-5-0 |
Washington Commanders Offense:
The Commanders are coached by Ron Rivera who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 6-5-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Ron Rivera is no different.
Taylor Heinicke is the quarterback for the Commanders. The 29-year-old Old Dominion alum entered the league in 2015 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 5 games and thrown for 1031 yards with a completion percentage of 60.8 percent. Taylor Heinicke has thrown 5 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 81.8.
His main target will be Terry McLaurin. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 50 receptions to date on 80 targets, a catch percentage of 62.5%, for a total of 792 yards. Terry McLaurin is averaging 15.8 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Taylor Heinicke will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Commanders running game is lead by the 24-year-old Antonio Gibson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 121 carries and rushed for 444 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 40.4 YPG, a number that you know Ron Rivera would love to see him exceed in this game. Antonio Gibson has 3 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Washington Commanders offense ranks 27 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -13.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 28 with a Passing DVOA of -11.5%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -5.8%, ranking #28 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.517 with 15 Red Zone touchdowns in 29 attempts.
Washington Commanders Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Commanders have a Defense DVOA of -5.8%, ranking 12 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #10 at -5.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Marcus Mariota. The Ron Rivera-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -5.9%, #16 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Joey Slye who has made 16 of 18 field goals this season, a 88.9% field goal percentage, with a long of 58 yards. The Washington Commanders fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Atlanta Falcons Offense:
The Falcons are on the road for this one. Arthur Smith’s squad is 5-6-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Atlanta Falcons have a betting line of +4.5 or you could bet them straight up at +170.
29-year-old Marcus Mariota will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2015 after playing his college days at Oregon. Marcus Mariota has a quarterback rating of 90.7 on 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s started 11 games and thrown for 1878yards, a completion percentage of 62.2.
Cordarrelle Patterson is the lead back for the Falcons running game. The 31-year-old has taken 86 carries and rushed for 454 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 64.9 YPG and he has scored 5 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Marcus Mariota will look to target Drake London against the Arthur Smith defense. Drake London has 4 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 65 times and made 39 catches for 409 yards. Drake London has a catch percentage of 60.0% and his yards per reception is 10.5.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Atlanta Falcons offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 6.3% which ranks at number 12 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 4.5%, the number 14 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 15 with a Rush DVOA total of 13.9%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 20 Red Zone touchdowns on 39 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.513.
Atlanta Falcons Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Younghoe Koo to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 54 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Younghoe Koo has made 18 field goals on 54 attempts, a field goal percentage of 81.8%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Falcons with a Defensive DVOA of 10.8% which ranks at 28/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #10 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -5.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 10.2% DVOA which ranks at #16.
Key Match-ups:
- Taylor Heinicke QB Rating of 81.8 vs. Atlanta Falcons Pass DVOA Defense of 4.5%
The Falcons have 13 interceptions this year and 28 sacks. They are allowing 17.4 points per game. - Antonio Gibson vs. Atlanta Falcons number 15 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per carry against the the Atlanta Falcons and 106.6 per game. - Marcus Mariota QB Rating of 90.7 vs. Washington Commanders #10 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Commanders defense has allowed 20.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 29 times and picked him off 6 times. - Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Washington Commanders 5.3% DVOA Rush Defense
The Commanders are giving up 103.1 YPG on 4.2 per carry thus far this season.
Falcons/Commanders Bettting Stats:
Falcons Against the spread: 6-3-0
Falcons Over/Under: 5-4-0
Commanders Against the spread: 4-4-1
Commanders Over/Under: 3-6-0
The best bet is Atlanta Falcons +4.5 and Under 40.5.