Bears vs. Jets: Week 12 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 24 November 2022

The 6-4-0 New York Jets host the 3-8-0 Chicago Bears at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Jets have a point spread of -6.0 with a money line of -265. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 38.5 points.

Chicago Bears New York Jets

Chicago Bears (+6.0)

Record: 3-8-0
Points Per Game: 21.9
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.9

New York Jets (-6.0)

Record: 6-4-0
Points Per Game: 19.9
Points Allowed Per Game: 18.6

New York Jets Offense:

The Jets are coached by Robert Saleh who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 6-4-0 after going 4-13 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Robert Saleh is no different.

Zach Wilson is the quarterback for the Jets. The 23-year-old BYU alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 7 games and thrown for 1279 yards with a completion percentage of 55.6 percent. Zach Wilson has thrown 4 touchdowns despite 5 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 72.6.

His main target will be Garrett Wilson. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 22-year-old target. He has made 44 receptions to date on 71 targets, a catch percentage of 62.0%, for a total of 533 yards. Garrett Wilson is averaging 12.1 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Zach Wilson will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Jets running game is lead by the 21-year-old Breece Hall. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 80 carries and rushed for 463 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 66.1 YPG, a number that you know Robert Saleh would love to see him exceed in this game. Breece Hall has 4 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the New York Jets offense ranks 20 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -5.6%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 22 with a Passing DVOA of -5.2%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 3.0%, ranking #20 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.552 with 16 Red Zone touchdowns in 29 attempts.

New York Jets Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Jets have a Defense DVOA of -12.0%, ranking 6 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #3 at -11.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Justin Fields. The Robert Saleh-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -11.5%, #5 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Greg Zuerlein who has made 17 of 20 field goals this season, a 85.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 57 yards. The New York Jets fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Chicago Bears Offense:

The Bears are on the road for this one. Matt Eberflus’s squad is 3-8-0 this season after going 6-11 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Chicago Bears have a betting line of +6.0 or you could bet them straight up at +225.

23-year-old Justin Fields will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Ohio State. Justin Fields has a quarterback rating of 86.2 on 13 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’s started 11 games and thrown for 1642yards, a completion percentage of 59.6.

David Montgomery is the lead back for the Bears running game. The 25-year-old has taken 132 carries and rushed for 501 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 50.1 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Justin Fields will look to target Darnell Mooney against the Matt Eberflus defense. Darnell Mooney has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 61 times and made 40 catches for 493 yards. Darnell Mooney has a catch percentage of 65.6% and his yards per reception is 12.3.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Chicago Bears offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -5.8% which ranks at number 21 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -3.7%, the number 20 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 27 with a Rush DVOA total of -5.1%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 21 Red Zone touchdowns on 35 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.6.

Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Cairo Santos to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 51 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Cairo Santos has made 15 field goals on 51 attempts, a field goal percentage of 93.8%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bears with a Defensive DVOA of 11.8% which ranks at 30/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #3 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -11.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 11.7% DVOA which ranks at #5.

Key Match-ups:

  • Zach Wilson QB Rating of 72.6 vs. Chicago Bears Pass DVOA Defense of -3.7%
    The Bears have 9 interceptions this year and 15 sacks. They are allowing 24.9 points per game.
  • Breece Hall vs. Chicago Bears number 27 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.7 yards per carry against the the Chicago Bears and 142.6 per game.
  • Justin Fields QB Rating of 86.2 vs. New York Jets #3 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Jets defense has allowed 18.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 32 times and picked him off 11 times.
  • David Montgomery vs. New York Jets -10.8% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Jets are giving up 109.7 YPG on 4 per carry thus far this season.

Bears/Jets Bettting Stats:

Bears Against the spread: 4-4-1
Bears Over/Under: 5-4-0

Jets Against the spread: 6-3-0
Jets Over/Under: 3-6-0

The best bet is New York Jets -6.0 and Under 38.5.