The 4-6-0 Green Bay Packers host the 6-3-0 Tennessee Titans at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers have a point spread of -3 with a money line of -175. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 41 points.
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Tennessee Titans (3)Record: 6-3-0 |
Green Bay Packers (-3)Record: 4-6-0 |
Green Bay Packers Offense:
The Packers are coached by Matt LaFleur who has been with the team since 2019. They have a current season record of 4-6-0 after going 13-4 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt LaFleur is no different.
Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback for the Packers. The 39-year-old California alum entered the league in 2005 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 10 games and thrown for 2315 yards with a completion percentage of 65.0 percent. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 17 touchdowns despite 7 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 93.
His main target will be Allen Lazard. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 33 receptions to date on 55 targets, a catch percentage of 60.0%, for a total of 472 yards. Allen Lazard is averaging 14.3 yards per catch with 5 touchdowns thus far. Aaron Rodgers will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Packers running game is lead by the 28-year-old Aaron Jones. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 131 carries and rushed for 738 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 73.8 YPG, a number that you know Matt LaFleur would love to see him exceed in this game. Aaron Jones has 2 touchdowns this season and 2 fumbles.
Overall, the Green Bay Packers offense ranks 9 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 7.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 8 with a Passing DVOA of 7.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 11.2%, ranking #15 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.517 with 15 Red Zone touchdowns in 29 attempts.
Green Bay Packers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Packers have a Defense DVOA of 0.4%, ranking 17 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #18 at -0.1% and they’ll need them to show up against Ryan Tannehill. The Matt LaFleur-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -0.1%, #8 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Mason Crosby who has made 10 of 13 field goals this season, a 76.9% field goal percentage, with a long of 48 yards. The Green Bay Packers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Tennessee Titans Offense:
The Titans are on the road for this one. Mike Vrabel’s squad is 6-3-0 this season after going 12-5 last year. He has been at the helm since 2018 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Tennessee Titans have a betting line of 3 or you could bet them straight up at +155.
34-year-old Ryan Tannehill will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Texas A&M. Ryan Tannehill has a quarterback rating of 93 on 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 1352yards, a completion percentage of 62.6.
Derrick Henry is the lead back for the Titans running game. The 28-year-old has taken 202 carries and rushed for 923 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 102.6 YPG and he has scored 9 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Ryan Tannehill will look to target Robert Woods against the Mike Vrabel defense. Robert Woods has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 43 times and made 24 catches for 266 yards. Robert Woods has a catch percentage of 55.8% and his yards per reception is 11.1.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Tennessee Titans offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -5.5% which ranks at number 21 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -5.2%, the number 22 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 17 with a Rush DVOA total of 6.3%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 16 Red Zone touchdowns on 21 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.762.
Tennessee Titans Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Randy Bullock to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 48 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Randy Bullock has made 11 field goals on 48 attempts, a field goal percentage of 84.6%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Titans with a Defensive DVOA of -8.0% which ranks at 9/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #18 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -0.1%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -5.8% DVOA which ranks at #8.
Key Match-ups:
- Aaron Rodgers QB Rating of 93 vs. Tennessee Titans Pass DVOA Defense of -5.2%
The Titans have 9 interceptions this year and 29 sacks. They are allowing 18.7 points per game. - Aaron Jones vs. Tennessee Titans number 17 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 3.9 yards per carry against the the Tennessee Titans and 85.1 per game. - Ryan Tannehill QB Rating of 93 vs. Green Bay Packers #18 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Packers defense has allowed 21.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 19 times and picked him off 7 times. - Derrick Henry vs. Green Bay Packers -7.4% DVOA Rush Defense
The Packers are giving up 140.6 YPG on 4.8 per carry thus far this season.
Titans/Packers Bettting Stats:
Titans Against the spread: 6-2-0
Titans Over/Under: 2-6-0
Packers Against the spread: 3-6-0
Packers Over/Under: 3-6-0
The best bet is Tennessee Titans 3 and Under 41.