The 4-6-0 Detroit Lions host the 7-3-0 Buffalo Bills at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. The Lions have a point spread of +9.5 with a money line of +370. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 54.5 points.
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Buffalo Bills (-9.5)Record: 7-3-0 |
Detroit Lions (+9.5)Record: 4-6-0 |
Detroit Lions Offense:
The Lions are coached by Dan Campbell who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 4-6-0 after going 3-13-1 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Dan Campbell is no different.
Jared Goff is the quarterback for the Lions. The 28-year-old California alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 10 games and thrown for 2442 yards with a completion percentage of 63.9 percent. Jared Goff has thrown 15 touchdowns despite 7 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 92.8.
His main target will be Amon-Ra St. Brown. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 56 receptions to date on 78 targets, a catch percentage of 71.8%, for a total of 594 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 10.6 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Jared Goff will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Lions running game is lead by the 23-year-old D’Andre Swift. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 45 carries and rushed for 273 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 39 YPG, a number that you know Dan Campbell would love to see him exceed in this game. D’Andre Swift has 3 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Detroit Lions offense ranks 10 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 7.4%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 15 with a Passing DVOA of 3.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 16.3%, ranking #13 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.711 with 27 Red Zone touchdowns in 38 attempts.
Detroit Lions Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Lions have a Defense DVOA of 9.2%, ranking 25 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #23 at 6.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Josh Allen. The Dan Campbell-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 6.4%, #23 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Michael Badgley who has made 10 of 10 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 53 yards. The Detroit Lions fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Buffalo Bills Offense:
The Bills are on the road for this one. Sean McDermott’s squad is 7-3-0 this season after going 11-6 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Buffalo Bills have a betting line of -9.5 or you could bet them straight up at -460.
26-year-old Josh Allen will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2018 after playing his college days at Wyoming. Josh Allen has a quarterback rating of 96.9 on 21 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He’s started 10 games and thrown for 2930yards, a completion percentage of 64.7.
Devin Singletary is the lead back for the Bills running game. The 25-year-old has taken 110 carries and rushed for 480 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 48 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.
On the passing front, Josh Allen will look to target Stefon Diggs against the Sean McDermott defense. Stefon Diggs has 8 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 104 times and made 76 catches for 1033 yards. Stefon Diggs has a catch percentage of 73.1% and his yards per reception is 13.6.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Buffalo Bills offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 14.2% which ranks at number 6 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 13.4%, the number 4 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 3 with a Rush DVOA total of 31.6%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 20 Red Zone touchdowns on 39 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.513.
Buffalo Bills Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Tyler Bass to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 56 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Tyler Bass has made 21 field goals on 56 attempts, a field goal percentage of 87.5%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bills with a Defensive DVOA of -13.3% which ranks at 3/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #23 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 6.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -9.0% DVOA which ranks at #23.
Key Match-ups:
- Jared Goff QB Rating of 92.8 vs. Buffalo Bills Pass DVOA Defense of 13.4%
The Bills have 13 interceptions this year and 28 sacks. They are allowing 17.4 points per game. - D’Andre Swift vs. Buffalo Bills number 3 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per carry against the the Buffalo Bills and 106.6 per game. - Josh Allen QB Rating of 96.9 vs. Detroit Lions #23 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Lions defense has allowed 28.2 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 17 times and picked him off 8 times. - Devin Singletary vs. Detroit Lions 13.2% DVOA Rush Defense
The Lions are giving up 153.7 YPG on 5.2 per carry thus far this season.
Bills/Lions Bettting Stats:
Bills Against the spread: 4-4-0
Bills Over/Under: 1-7-0
Lions Against the spread: 4-4-0
Lions Over/Under: 5-3-0
The best bet is Buffalo Bills -9.5 and Under 54.5.