The 8-0-0 Philadelphia Eagles host the 4-5-0 Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Eagles have a point spread of -11.0 with a money line of -500. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 44 points.
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Washington Commanders (+11.0)Record: 4-5-0 |
Philadelphia Eagles (-11.0)Record: 8-0-0 |
Philadelphia Eagles Offense:
The Eagles are coached by Nick Sirianni who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 8-0-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Nick Sirianni is no different.
Jalen Hurts is the quarterback for the Eagles. The 24-year-old Oklahoma alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 8 games and thrown for 2042 yards with a completion percentage of 68.2 percent. Jalen Hurts has thrown 12 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 107.8.
His main target will be A.J. Brown. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 43 receptions to date on 69 targets, a catch percentage of 62.3%, for a total of 718 yards. A.J. Brown is averaging 16.7 yards per catch with 6 touchdowns thus far. Jalen Hurts will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Eagles running game is lead by the 25-year-old Miles Sanders. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 131 carries and rushed for 656 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 82 YPG, a number that you know Nick Sirianni would love to see him exceed in this game. Miles Sanders has 6 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Philadelphia Eagles offense ranks 4 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 18.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 3 with a Passing DVOA of 13.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 34.7%, ranking #3 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.7 with 21 Red Zone touchdowns in 30 attempts.
Philadelphia Eagles Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Eagles have a Defense DVOA of -16.3%, ranking 3 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #2 at -10.3% and they’ll need them to show up against Taylor Heinicke. The Nick Sirianni-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -10.3%, #2 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Jake Elliott who has made 6 of 8 field goals this season, a 75.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The Philadelphia Eagles fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Washington Commanders Offense:
The Commanders are on the road for this one. Ron Rivera’s squad is 4-5-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2020 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Washington Commanders have a betting line of +11.0 or you could bet them straight up at 395.
29-year-old Taylor Heinicke will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2015 after playing his college days at Old Dominion. Taylor Heinicke has a quarterback rating of 87.6 on 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 629yards, a completion percentage of 63.
Antonio Gibson is the lead back for the Commanders running game. The 24-year-old has taken 89 carries and rushed for 328 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 36.4 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Taylor Heinicke will look to target Terry McLaurin against the Ron Rivera defense. Terry McLaurin has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 62 times and made 38 catches for 609 yards. Terry McLaurin has a catch percentage of 61.3% and his yards per reception is 16.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Washington Commanders offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -14.3% which ranks at number 28 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -13.2%, the number 30 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 29 with a Rush DVOA total of -8.2%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 12 Red Zone touchdowns on 22 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.545.
Washington Commanders Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Joey Slye to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 50 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Joey Slye has made 9 field goals on 50 attempts, a field goal percentage of 81.8%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Commanders with a Defensive DVOA of -1.7% which ranks at 14/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #2 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -10.3%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -2.0% DVOA which ranks at #2.
Key Match-ups:
- Jalen Hurts QB Rating of 107.8 vs. Washington Commanders Pass DVOA Defense of -13.2%
The Commanders have 3 interceptions this year and 23 sacks. They are allowing 21.3 points per game. - Miles Sanders vs. Washington Commanders number 29 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry against the the Washington Commanders and 113.2 per game. - Taylor Heinicke QB Rating of 87.6 vs. Philadelphia Eagles #2 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Eagles defense has allowed 16.9 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 26 times and picked him off 12 times. - Antonio Gibson vs. Philadelphia Eagles -28.3% DVOA Rush Defense
The Eagles are giving up 121.4 YPG on 5.2 per carry thus far this season.
Commanders/Eagles Bettting Stats:
Commanders Against the spread: 4-4-1
Commanders Over/Under: 3-6-0
Eagles Against the spread: 5-3-0
Eagles Over/Under: 5-3-0
The best bet is Philadelphia Eagles -11.0 and Under 44.