Vikings vs. Bills: Week 10 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 9 November 2022

The 6-2-0 Buffalo Bills host the 7-1-0 Minnesota Vikings at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The Bills have a point spread of -3.5 with a money line of . The over/under total on the game is currently set at 44 points.

Minnesota Vikings Buffalo Bills

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)

Record: 7-1-0
Points Per Game: 24.1
Points Allowed Per Game: 20.1

Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

Record: 6-2-0
Points Per Game: 27.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 14.8

Buffalo Bills Offense:

The Bills are coached by Sean McDermott who has been with the team since 2017. They have a current season record of 6-2-0 after going 11-6 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Sean McDermott is no different.

Josh Allen is the quarterback for the Bills. The 26-year-old Wyoming alum entered the league in 2018 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 8 games and thrown for 2403 yards with a completion percentage of 64.1 percent. Josh Allen has thrown 19 touchdowns despite 8 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 99.2.

His main target will be Stefon Diggs. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 60 receptions to date on 83 targets, a catch percentage of 72.3%, for a total of 857 yards. Stefon Diggs is averaging 14.3 yards per catch with 7 touchdowns thus far. Josh Allen will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Bills running game is lead by the 25-year-old Devin Singletary. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 79 carries and rushed for 347 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 43.4 YPG, a number that you know Sean McDermott would love to see him exceed in this game. Devin Singletary has 0 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Buffalo Bills offense ranks 6 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 13.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 5 with a Passing DVOA of 11.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 30.5%, ranking #6 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.536 with 15 Red Zone touchdowns in 28 attempts.

Buffalo Bills Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Bills have a Defense DVOA of -14.5%, ranking 4 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #5 at -8.6% and they’ll need them to show up against Kirk Cousins. The Sean McDermott-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -8.6%, #5 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Tyler Bass who has made 12 of 15 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The Buffalo Bills fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Minnesota Vikings Offense:

The Vikings are on the road for this one. Kevin O’Connell’s squad is 7-1-0 this season after going 8-9 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Minnesota Vikings have a betting line of +3.5 or you could bet them straight up at .

34-year-old Kirk Cousins will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Michigan State. Kirk Cousins has a quarterback rating of 89.5 on 13 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He’s started 8 games and thrown for 1999yards, a completion percentage of 64.8.

Dalvin Cook is the lead back for the Vikings running game. The 27-year-old has taken 131 carries and rushed for 608 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 76 YPG and he has scored 5 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Kirk Cousins will look to target Justin Jefferson against the Kevin O’Connell defense. Justin Jefferson has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 84 times and made 59 catches for 867 yards. Justin Jefferson has a catch percentage of 70.2% and his yards per reception is 14.7.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Minnesota Vikings offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 2.6% which ranks at number 16 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 3.8%, the number 13 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 17 with a Rush DVOA total of 6.5%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 20 Red Zone touchdowns on 31 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.645.

Minnesota Vikings Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Greg Joseph to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 56 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Greg Joseph has made 11 field goals on 56 attempts, a field goal percentage of 68.8%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Vikings with a Defensive DVOA of 2.6% which ranks at 19/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #5 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -8.6%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 1.5% DVOA which ranks at #5.

Key Match-ups:

  • Josh Allen QB Rating of 99.2 vs. Minnesota Vikings Pass DVOA Defense of 3.8%
    The Vikings have 8 interceptions this year and 24 sacks. They are allowing 20.1 points per game.
  • Devin Singletary vs. Minnesota Vikings number 17 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.2 yards per carry against the the Minnesota Vikings and 111.3 per game.
  • Kirk Cousins QB Rating of 89.5 vs. Buffalo Bills #5 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Bills defense has allowed 14.8 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 23 times and picked him off 11 times.
  • Dalvin Cook vs. Buffalo Bills -14.4% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Bills are giving up 104.9 YPG on 4.3 per carry thus far this season.

Vikings/Bills Bettting Stats:

Vikings Against the spread: 3-4-1
Vikings Over/Under: 4-4-0

Bills Against the spread: 4-4-0
Bills Over/Under: 1-7-0

The best bet is Buffalo Bills -3.5 and Under 44.