The 3-5-0 New Orleans Saints host the 5-3-0 Baltimore Ravens at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Saints have a point spread of +3 with a money line of +124. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 48 points.
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Baltimore Ravens (-3)Record: 5-3-0 |
New Orleans Saints (+3)Record: 3-5-0 |
New Orleans Saints Offense:
The Saints are coached by Dennis Allen who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 3-5-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Dennis Allen is no different.
Andy Dalton is the quarterback for the Saints. The 35-year-old TCU alum entered the league in 2011 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 5 games and thrown for 1175 yards with a completion percentage of 65.2 percent. Andy Dalton has thrown 9 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 95.1.
His main target will be Michael Thomas. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 16 receptions to date on 22 targets, a catch percentage of 72.7%, for a total of 171 yards. Michael Thomas is averaging 10.7 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Andy Dalton will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Saints running game is lead by the 27-year-old Alvin Kamara. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 95 carries and rushed for 413 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 68.8 YPG, a number that you know Dennis Allen would love to see him exceed in this game. Alvin Kamara has 1 touchdowns this season and 2 fumbles.
Overall, the New Orleans Saints offense ranks 19 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -1.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 18 with a Passing DVOA of 0.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -0.9%, ranking #23 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.643 with 18 Red Zone touchdowns in 28 attempts.
New Orleans Saints Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Saints have a Defense DVOA of -2.4%, ranking 12 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #7 at -3.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Lamar Jackson. The Dennis Allen-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -3.9%, #11 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Wil Lutz who has made 12 of 17 field goals this season, a 70.6% field goal percentage, with a long of 60 yards. The New Orleans Saints fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Baltimore Ravens Offense:
The Ravens are on the road for this one. John Harbaugh’s squad is 5-3-0 this season after going 8-9 last year. He has been at the helm since 2008 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Baltimore Ravens have a betting line of -3 or you could bet them straight up at -144.
25-year-old Lamar Jackson will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2018 after playing his college days at Louisville. Lamar Jackson has a quarterback rating of 94.2 on 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He’s started 8 games and thrown for 1635yards, a completion percentage of 63.
Kenyan Drake is the lead back for the Ravens running game. The 28-year-old has taken 49 carries and rushed for 251 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 41.8 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Lamar Jackson will look to target Mark Andrews against the John Harbaugh defense. Mark Andrews has 5 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 64 times and made 42 catches for 488 yards. Mark Andrews has a catch percentage of 65.6% and his yards per reception is 11.6.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Baltimore Ravens offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 17.5% which ranks at number 2 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 10.7%, the number 4 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 4 with a Rush DVOA total of 33.6%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 17 Red Zone touchdowns on 30 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.567.
Baltimore Ravens Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Justin Tucker to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 58 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Justin Tucker has made 16 field goals on 58 attempts, a field goal percentage of 88.9%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Ravens with a Defensive DVOA of 2.1% which ranks at 17/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #7 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -3.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.3% DVOA which ranks at #11.
Key Match-ups:
- Andy Dalton QB Rating of 95.1 vs. Baltimore Ravens Pass DVOA Defense of 10.7%
The Ravens have 8 interceptions this year and 23 sacks. They are allowing 22.9 points per game. - Alvin Kamara vs. Baltimore Ravens number 4 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry against the the Baltimore Ravens and 97.5 per game. - Lamar Jackson QB Rating of 94.2 vs. New Orleans Saints #7 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Saints defense has allowed 25 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 19 times and picked him off 2 times. - Kenyan Drake vs. New Orleans Saints 2.2% DVOA Rush Defense
The Saints are giving up 112.5 YPG on 4.5 per carry thus far this season.
Ravens/Saints Bettting Stats:
Ravens Against the spread: 4-4-0
Ravens Over/Under: 3-5-0
Saints Against the spread: 3-5-0
Saints Over/Under: 5-3-0
The best bet is Baltimore Ravens -3 and Under 48.