The 4-5-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the 6-3-0 Seattle Seahawks at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers have a point spread of -3.0 with a money line of -145. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 44.5 points.
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Seattle Seahawks (+3.0)Record: 6-3-0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.0)Record: 4-5-0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense:
The Buccaneers are coached by Todd Bowles who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 4-5-0 after going 13-4 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Todd Bowles is no different.
Tom Brady is the quarterback for the Buccaneers. The 45-year-old Michigan alum entered the league in 2000 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 9 games and thrown for 2547 yards with a completion percentage of 65.3 percent. Tom Brady has thrown 10 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 90.5.
His main target will be Mike Evans. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 44 receptions to date on 70 targets, a catch percentage of 62.9%, for a total of 617 yards. Mike Evans is averaging 14 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Tom Brady will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Buccaneers running game is lead by the 27-year-old Leonard Fournette. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 121 carries and rushed for 405 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 45 YPG, a number that you know Todd Bowles would love to see him exceed in this game. Leonard Fournette has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense ranks 17 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -0.4%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 12 with a Passing DVOA of 4.2%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 19.6%, ranking #10 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.444 with 12 Red Zone touchdowns in 27 attempts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Buccaneers have a Defense DVOA of -9.3%, ranking 7 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #8 at -3.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Geno Smith. The Todd Bowles-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -3.5%, #6 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Ryan Succop who has made 22 of 24 field goals this season, a 91.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Seattle Seahawks Offense:
The Seahawks are on the road for this one. Pete Carroll’s squad is 6-3-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2010 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Seattle Seahawks have a betting line of +3.0 or you could bet them straight up at 125.
32-year-old Geno Smith will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2013 after playing his college days at West Virginia. Geno Smith has a quarterback rating of 107.2 on 15 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 9 games and thrown for 2199yards, a completion percentage of 73.1.
Kenneth Walker III is the lead back for the Seahawks running game. The 22-year-old has taken 111 carries and rushed for 570 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 71.3 YPG and he has scored 7 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Geno Smith will look to target D.K. Metcalf against the Pete Carroll defense. D.K. Metcalf has 4 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 68 times and made 42 catches for 510 yards. D.K. Metcalf has a catch percentage of 61.8% and his yards per reception is 12.1.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Seattle Seahawks offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 12.6% which ranks at number 7 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 4.8%, the number 9 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 5 with a Rush DVOA total of 30.8%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 14 Red Zone touchdowns on 29 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.483.
Seattle Seahawks Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Jason Myers to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 56 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Jason Myers has made 18 field goals on 56 attempts, a field goal percentage of 94.7%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Seahawks with a Defensive DVOA of -1.9% which ranks at 12/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #8 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -3.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -2.2% DVOA which ranks at #6.
Key Match-ups:
- Tom Brady QB Rating of 90.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks Pass DVOA Defense of 4.8%
The Seahawks have 5 interceptions this year and 27 sacks. They are allowing 24.4 points per game. - Leonard Fournette vs. Seattle Seahawks number 5 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.8 yards per carry against the the Seattle Seahawks and 138.7 per game. - Geno Smith QB Rating of 107.2 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers #8 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Buccaneers defense has allowed 18.2 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 29 times and picked him off 6 times. - Kenneth Walker III vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Buccaneers are giving up 125.2 YPG on 4.6 per carry thus far this season.
Seahawks/Buccaneers Bettting Stats:
Seahawks Against the spread: 6-3-0
Seahawks Over/Under: 5-4-0
Buccaneers Against the spread: 2-6-1
Buccaneers Over/Under: 2-7-0
The best bet is Seattle Seahawks +3.0 and Under 44.5.