Saints vs. Steelers: Week 10 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 9 November 2022

The 2-6-0 Pittsburgh Steelers host the 3-6-0 New Orleans Saints at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Steelers have a point spread of +1.5 with a money line of 105. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 40 points.

New Orleans Saints Pittsburgh Steelers

New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Record: 3-6-0
Points Per Game: 23.6
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.2

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5)

Record: 2-6-0
Points Per Game: 15
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.6

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense:

The Steelers are coached by Mike Tomlin who has been with the team since 2007. They have a current season record of 2-6-0 after going 9-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike Tomlin is no different.

Kenny Pickett is the quarterback for the Steelers. The 24-year-old Pitt alum entered the league in 2022 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 962 yards with a completion percentage of 67.9 percent. Kenny Pickett has thrown 2 touchdowns despite 8 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 66.8.

His main target will be Diontae Johnson. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 43 receptions to date on 76 targets, a catch percentage of 56.6%, for a total of 372 yards. Diontae Johnson is averaging 8.7 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Kenny Pickett will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Steelers running game is lead by the 24-year-old Najee Harris. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 108 carries and rushed for 361 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 45.1 YPG, a number that you know Mike Tomlin would love to see him exceed in this game. Najee Harris has 1 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense ranks 24 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -10.6%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 26 with a Passing DVOA of -8.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -0.5%, ranking #22 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.476 with 10 Red Zone touchdowns in 21 attempts.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Steelers have a Defense DVOA of 3.2%, ranking 20 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #20 at 1.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Andy Dalton. The Mike Tomlin-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 1.9%, #21 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Chris Boswell who has made 12 of 16 field goals this season, a 75.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 59 yards. The Pittsburgh Steelers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

New Orleans Saints Offense:

The Saints are on the road for this one. Dennis Allen’s squad is 3-6-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The New Orleans Saints have a betting line of -1.5 or you could bet them straight up at -125.

35-year-old Andy Dalton will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2011 after playing his college days at TCU. Andy Dalton has a quarterback rating of 93.4 on 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 1385yards, a completion percentage of 65.3.

Alvin Kamara is the lead back for the Saints running game. The 27-year-old has taken 104 carries and rushed for 443 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 63.3 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.

On the passing front, Andy Dalton will look to target Chris Olave against the Dennis Allen defense. Chris Olave has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 72 times and made 43 catches for 618 yards. Chris Olave has a catch percentage of 59.7% and his yards per reception is 14.4.

According to FootballOutsiders, the New Orleans Saints offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -4.7% which ranks at number 21 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -1.8%, the number 20 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 24 with a Rush DVOA total of -2.7%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 18 Red Zone touchdowns on 30 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.6.

New Orleans Saints Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Wil Lutz to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 60 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Wil Lutz has made 14 field goals on 60 attempts, a field goal percentage of 73.7%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Saints with a Defensive DVOA of -0.7% which ranks at 16/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #20 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 1.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -2.2% DVOA which ranks at #21.

Key Match-ups:

  • Kenny Pickett QB Rating of 66.8 vs. New Orleans Saints Pass DVOA Defense of -1.8%
    The Saints have 2 interceptions this year and 22 sacks. They are allowing 25.2 points per game.
  • Najee Harris vs. New Orleans Saints number 24 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against the the New Orleans Saints and 120.9 per game.
  • Andy Dalton QB Rating of 93.4 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers #20 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Steelers defense has allowed 24.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 15 times and picked him off 8 times.
  • Alvin Kamara vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 10.9% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Steelers are giving up 117.9 YPG on 4.2 per carry thus far this season.

Saints/Steelers Bettting Stats:

Saints Against the spread: 3-6-0
Saints Over/Under: 5-4-0

Steelers Against the spread: 3-4-1
Steelers Over/Under: 3-5-0

The best bet is New Orleans Saints -1.5 and Over 40.