The 6-2-0 Kansas City Chiefs host the 3-6-0 Jacksonville Jaguars at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The Chiefs have a point spread of -9.5 with a money line of -450. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 50.5 points.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5)Record: 3-6-0 |
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)Record: 6-2-0 |
Kansas City Chiefs Offense:
The Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid who has been with the team since 2013. They have a current season record of 6-2-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Andy Reid is no different.
Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback for the Chiefs. The 27-year-old Texas Tech alum entered the league in 2017 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 8 games and thrown for 2605 yards with a completion percentage of 66.2 percent. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 21 touchdowns despite 6 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 103.6.
His main target will be JuJu Smith-Schuster. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 44 receptions to date on 60 targets, a catch percentage of 73.3%, for a total of 582 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster is averaging 13.2 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Patrick Mahomes will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Chiefs running game is lead by the 23-year-old Clyde Edwards-Helaire. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 69 carries and rushed for 293 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 36.6 YPG, a number that you know Andy Reid would love to see him exceed in this game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 3 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Kansas City Chiefs offense ranks 1 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 22.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 1 with a Passing DVOA of 17.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 38.7%, ranking #2 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.735 with 25 Red Zone touchdowns in 34 attempts.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Chiefs have a Defense DVOA of 7.4%, ranking 23 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #24 at 5.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Trevor Lawrence. The Andy Reid-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 5.9%, #24 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Harrison Butker who has made 5 of 8 field goals this season, a 62.5% field goal percentage, with a long of 62 yards. The Kansas City Chiefs fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense:
The Jaguars are on the road for this one. Doug Pederson’s squad is 3-6-0 this season after going 3-14 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a betting line of +9.5 or you could bet them straight up at 360.
23-year-old Trevor Lawrence will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Clemson. Trevor Lawrence has a quarterback rating of 87.5 on 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He’s started 9 games and thrown for 2075yards, a completion percentage of 64.3.
Travis Etienne is the lead back for the Jaguars running game. The 23-year-old has taken 120 carries and rushed for 680 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 75.6 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 3 fumbles.
On the passing front, Trevor Lawrence will look to target Christian Kirk against the Doug Pederson defense. Christian Kirk has 5 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 70 times and made 43 catches for 574 yards. Christian Kirk has a catch percentage of 61.4% and his yards per reception is 13.3.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Jacksonville Jaguars offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 6.6% which ranks at number 11 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 1.9%, the number 16 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 9 with a Rush DVOA total of 20.6%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 18 Red Zone touchdowns on 34 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.529.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Riley Patterson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 52 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Riley Patterson has made 13 field goals on 52 attempts, a field goal percentage of 86.7%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Jaguars with a Defensive DVOA of 6.3% which ranks at 22/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #24 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 5.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 6.0% DVOA which ranks at #24.
Key Match-ups:
- Patrick Mahomes QB Rating of 103.6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pass DVOA Defense of 1.9%
The Jaguars have 8 interceptions this year and 16 sacks. They are allowing 19.8 points per game. - Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Jacksonville Jaguars number 9 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4 yards per carry against the the Jacksonville Jaguars and 105.1 per game. - Trevor Lawrence QB Rating of 87.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs #24 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Chiefs defense has allowed 23.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 22 times and picked him off 3 times. - Travis Etienne vs. Kansas City Chiefs 12.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Chiefs are giving up 102 YPG on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.
Jaguars/Chiefs Bettting Stats:
Jaguars Against the spread: 3-6-0
Jaguars Over/Under: 4-5-0
Chiefs Against the spread: 3-5-0
Chiefs Over/Under: 4-4-0
The best bet is Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 and Over 50.5.