The 3-6-0 Green Bay Packers host the 6-2-0 Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers have a point spread of +5.0 with a money line of 195. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43 points.
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Dallas Cowboys (-5.0)Record: 6-2-0 |
Green Bay Packers (+5.0)Record: 3-6-0 |
Green Bay Packers Offense:
The Packers are coached by Matt LaFleur who has been with the team since 2019. They have a current season record of 3-6-0 after going 13-4 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt LaFleur is no different.
Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback for the Packers. The 39-year-old California alum entered the league in 2005 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 9 games and thrown for 2091 yards with a completion percentage of 64.7 percent. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 14 touchdowns despite 7 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 89.
His main target will be Allen Lazard. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 30 receptions to date on 51 targets, a catch percentage of 58.8%, for a total of 427 yards. Allen Lazard is averaging 14.2 yards per catch with 5 touchdowns thus far. Aaron Rodgers will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Packers running game is lead by the 28-year-old Aaron Jones. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 107 carries and rushed for 600 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 66.7 YPG, a number that you know Matt LaFleur would love to see him exceed in this game. Aaron Jones has 1 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Green Bay Packers offense ranks 15 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 2.8%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 10 with a Passing DVOA of 4.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 6.0%, ranking #18 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.5 with 13 Red Zone touchdowns in 26 attempts.
Green Bay Packers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Packers have a Defense DVOA of 2.4%, ranking 18 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #18 at 1.3% and they’ll need them to show up against Dak Prescott. The Matt LaFleur-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 1.3%, #9 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Mason Crosby who has made 9 of 11 field goals this season, a 81.8% field goal percentage, with a long of 48 yards. The Green Bay Packers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Dallas Cowboys Offense:
The Cowboys are on the road for this one. Mike McCarthy’s squad is 6-2-0 this season after going 12-5 last year. He has been at the helm since 2020 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Dallas Cowboys have a betting line of -5.0 or you could bet them straight up at -225.
29-year-old Dak Prescott will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2016 after playing his college days at Mississippi State. Dak Prescott has a quarterback rating of 90.1 on 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 591yards, a completion percentage of 66.7.
Ezekiel Elliott is the lead back for the Cowboys running game. The 27-year-old has taken 109 carries and rushed for 443 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 63.3 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Dak Prescott will look to target CeeDee Lamb against the Mike McCarthy defense. CeeDee Lamb has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 73 times and made 42 catches for 556 yards. CeeDee Lamb has a catch percentage of 57.5% and his yards per reception is 13.2.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Dallas Cowboys offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 6.8% which ranks at number 10 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 5.9%, the number 8 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 15 with a Rush DVOA total of 11.8%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 14 Red Zone touchdowns on 22 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.636.
Dallas Cowboys Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Brett Maher to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 54 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Brett Maher has made 15 field goals on 54 attempts, a field goal percentage of 88.2%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Cowboys with a Defensive DVOA of -18.5% which ranks at 1/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #18 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 1.3%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -11.4% DVOA which ranks at #9.
Key Match-ups:
- Aaron Rodgers QB Rating of 89 vs. Dallas Cowboys Pass DVOA Defense of 5.9%
The Cowboys have 7 interceptions this year and 33 sacks. They are allowing 16.6 points per game. - Aaron Jones vs. Dallas Cowboys number 15 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.7 yards per carry against the the Dallas Cowboys and 135.1 per game. - Dak Prescott QB Rating of 90.1 vs. Green Bay Packers #18 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Packers defense has allowed 20.9 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 17 times and picked him off 5 times. - Ezekiel Elliott vs. Green Bay Packers -3.7% DVOA Rush Defense
The Packers are giving up 138.6 YPG on 4.8 per carry thus far this season.
Cowboys/Packers Bettting Stats:
Cowboys Against the spread: 6-2-0
Cowboys Over/Under: 3-5-0
Packers Against the spread: 3-6-0
Packers Over/Under: 3-6-0
The best bet is Dallas Cowboys -5.0 and Under 43.