The 2-6-0 Las Vegas Raiders host the 3-5-1 Indianapolis Colts at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada. The Raiders have a point spread of -6.0 with a money line of -255. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42.5 points.
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Indianapolis Colts (+6.0)Record: 3-5-1 |
Las Vegas Raiders (-6.0)Record: 2-6-0 |
Las Vegas Raiders Offense:
The Raiders are coached by Josh McDaniels who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-6-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Josh McDaniels is no different.
Derek Carr is the quarterback for the Raiders. The 31-year-old Fresno State alum entered the league in 2014 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 8 games and thrown for 1880 yards with a completion percentage of 62.3 percent. Derek Carr has thrown 11 touchdowns despite 5 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 88.5.
His main target will be Davante Adams. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 30-year-old target. He has made 48 receptions to date on 85 targets, a catch percentage of 56.5%, for a total of 658 yards. Davante Adams is averaging 13.7 yards per catch with 7 touchdowns thus far. Derek Carr will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Raiders running game is lead by the 24-year-old Josh Jacobs. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 138 carries and rushed for 743 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 92.9 YPG, a number that you know Josh McDaniels would love to see him exceed in this game. Josh Jacobs has 6 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Las Vegas Raiders offense ranks 18 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -0.9%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 15 with a Passing DVOA of 3.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 3.2%, ranking #20 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.5 with 12 Red Zone touchdowns in 24 attempts.
Las Vegas Raiders Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Raiders have a Defense DVOA of 15.8%, ranking 32 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #32 at 9.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Sam Ehlinger. The Josh McDaniels-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 9.4%, #32 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Daniel Carlson who has made 18 of 18 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 55 yards. The Las Vegas Raiders fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Indianapolis Colts Offense:
The Colts are on the road for this one. Jeff Saturday’s squad is 3-5-1 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Indianapolis Colts have a betting line of +6.0 or you could bet them straight up at 215.
24-year-old Sam Ehlinger will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Texas. Sam Ehlinger has a quarterback rating of 69.7 on 0 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 304yards, a completion percentage of 61.5.
Jonathan Taylor is the lead back for the Colts running game. The 23-year-old has taken 107 carries and rushed for 462 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 77 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.
On the passing front, Sam Ehlinger will look to target Michael Pittman Jr. against the Jeff Saturday defense. Michael Pittman Jr. has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 76 times and made 54 catches for 550 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. has a catch percentage of 71.1% and his yards per reception is 10.2.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Indianapolis Colts offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -29.0% which ranks at number 32 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -21.8%, the number 32 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 31 with a Rush DVOA total of -23.6%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 11 Red Zone touchdowns on 25 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.44.
Indianapolis Colts Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Chase McLaughlin to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 52 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Chase McLaughlin has made 14 field goals on 52 attempts, a field goal percentage of 87.5%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Colts with a Defensive DVOA of -4.7% which ranks at 11/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #32 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 9.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -2.7% DVOA which ranks at #32.
Key Match-ups:
- Derek Carr QB Rating of 88.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts Pass DVOA Defense of -21.8%
The Colts have 4 interceptions this year and 23 sacks. They are allowing 20.3 points per game. - Josh Jacobs vs. Indianapolis Colts number 31 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 3.8 yards per carry against the the Indianapolis Colts and 114.4 per game. - Sam Ehlinger QB Rating of 69.7 vs. Las Vegas Raiders #32 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Raiders defense has allowed 25.1 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 9 times and picked him off 3 times. - Jonathan Taylor vs. Las Vegas Raiders 30.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Raiders are giving up 116 YPG on 4.2 per carry thus far this season.
Colts/Raiders Bettting Stats:
Colts Against the spread: 3-6-0
Colts Over/Under: 1-8-0
Raiders Against the spread: 3-5-0
Raiders Over/Under: 4-3-1
The best bet is Las Vegas Raiders -6.0 and Under 42.5.