The 4-4-0 San Francisco 49ers host the 5-3-0 Los Angeles Chargers at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers have a point spread of -7.0 with a money line of -305. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 45 points.
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Los Angeles Chargers (+7.0)Record: 5-3-0 |
San Francisco 49ers (-7.0)Record: 4-4-0 |
San Francisco 49ers Offense:
The 49ers are coached by Kyle Shanahan who has been with the team since 2017. They have a current season record of 4-4-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kyle Shanahan is no different.
Jimmy Garoppolo is the quarterback for the 49ers. The 31-year-old Eastern Illinois University alum entered the league in 2014 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 6 games and thrown for 1691 yards with a completion percentage of 66.7 percent. Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown 11 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 100.7.
His main target will be Deebo Samuel. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 32 receptions to date on 54 targets, a catch percentage of 59.3%, for a total of 387 yards. Deebo Samuel is averaging 12.1 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Jimmy Garoppolo will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The 49ers running game is lead by the 26-year-old Christian McCaffrey. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 111 carries and rushed for 525 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 65.6 YPG, a number that you know Kyle Shanahan would love to see him exceed in this game. Christian McCaffrey has 3 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the San Francisco 49ers offense ranks 13 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 4.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 14 with a Passing DVOA of 3.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 24.3%, ranking #7 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.577 with 15 Red Zone touchdowns in 26 attempts.
San Francisco 49ers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the 49ers have a Defense DVOA of -6.5%, ranking 9 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #9 at -2.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Justin Herbert. The Kyle Shanahan-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -2.9%, #13 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Robbie Gould who has made 10 of 13 field goals this season, a 76.9% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The San Francisco 49ers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense:
The Chargers are on the road for this one. Brandon Staley’s squad is 5-3-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Los Angeles Chargers have a betting line of +7.0 or you could bet them straight up at 255.
24-year-old Justin Herbert will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Oregon. Justin Herbert has a quarterback rating of 90.6 on 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 8 games and thrown for 2254yards, a completion percentage of 66.4.
Austin Ekeler is the lead back for the Chargers running game. The 27-year-old has taken 98 carries and rushed for 427 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 53.4 YPG and he has scored 6 touchdowns with 3 fumbles.
On the passing front, Justin Herbert will look to target Mike Williams against the Brandon Staley defense. Mike Williams has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 59 times and made 37 catches for 495 yards. Mike Williams has a catch percentage of 62.7% and his yards per reception is 13.4.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Los Angeles Chargers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -3.7% which ranks at number 20 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 0.6%, the number 17 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 16 with a Rush DVOA total of 11.7%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 17 Red Zone touchdowns on 32 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.531.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Cameron Dicker to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 42 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Cameron Dicker has made 4 field goals on 42 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Chargers with a Defensive DVOA of 1.2% which ranks at 17/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #9 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -2.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.9% DVOA which ranks at #13.
Key Match-ups:
- Jimmy Garoppolo QB Rating of 100.7 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Pass DVOA Defense of 0.6%
The Chargers have 7 interceptions this year and 19 sacks. They are allowing 25.8 points per game. - Christian McCaffrey vs. Los Angeles Chargers number 16 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5.7 yards per carry against the the Los Angeles Chargers and 145.5 per game. - Justin Herbert QB Rating of 90.6 vs. San Francisco 49ers #9 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The 49ers defense has allowed 18.4 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 26 times and picked him off 6 times. - Austin Ekeler vs. San Francisco 49ers 2.5% DVOA Rush Defense
The 49ers are giving up 86.6 YPG on 3.4 per carry thus far this season.
Chargers/49ers Bettting Stats:
Chargers Against the spread: 5-3-0
Chargers Over/Under: 4-4-0
49ers Against the spread: 4-4-0
49ers Over/Under: 3-5-0
The best bet is San Francisco 49ers -7.0 and Under 45.