The 1-5-1 Houston Texans host the 7-0-0 Philadelphia Eagles at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The Texans have a point spread of +14 with a money line of +580. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 45 points.
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Philadelphia Eagles (-14)Record: 7-0-0 |
Houston Texans (+14)Record: 1-5-1 |
Houston Texans Offense:
The Texans are coached by Lovie Smith who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 1-5-1 after going 4-13 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Lovie Smith is no different.
Davis Mills is the quarterback for the Texans. The 24-year-old Stanford alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 7 games and thrown for 1502 yards with a completion percentage of 63.1 percent. Davis Mills has thrown 8 touchdowns despite 6 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 81.9.
His main target will be Brandin Cooks. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 32 receptions to date on 53 targets, a catch percentage of 60.4%, for a total of 354 yards. Brandin Cooks is averaging 11.1 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Davis Mills will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Texans running game is lead by the 22-year-old Dameon Pierce. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 121 carries and rushed for 539 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 77 YPG, a number that you know Lovie Smith would love to see him exceed in this game. Dameon Pierce has 3 touchdowns this season and 2 fumbles.
Overall, the Houston Texans offense ranks 31 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -18.9%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 30 with a Passing DVOA of -13.6%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -13.7%, ranking #29 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.533 with 8 Red Zone touchdowns in 15 attempts.
Houston Texans Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Texans have a Defense DVOA of 13.2%, ranking 30 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #29 at 6.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Jalen Hurts. The Lovie Smith-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 6.4%, #17 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Ka’imi Fairbairn who has made 13 of 15 field goals this season, a 86.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 55 yards. The Houston Texans fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Philadelphia Eagles Offense:
The Eagles are on the road for this one. Nick Sirianni’s squad is 7-0-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Philadelphia Eagles have a betting line of -14 or you could bet them straight up at -800.
24-year-old Jalen Hurts will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Oklahoma. Jalen Hurts has a quarterback rating of 105.1 on 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 1799yards, a completion percentage of 67.
Miles Sanders is the lead back for the Eagles running game. The 25-year-old has taken 114 carries and rushed for 563 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 80.4 YPG and he has scored 5 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Jalen Hurts will look to target A.J. Brown against the Nick Sirianni defense. A.J. Brown has 5 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 64 times and made 39 catches for 659 yards. A.J. Brown has a catch percentage of 60.9% and his yards per reception is 16.9.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Philadelphia Eagles offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 17.2% which ranks at number 3 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 12.5%, the number 3 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 6 with a Rush DVOA total of 30.8%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 17 Red Zone touchdowns on 26 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.654.
Philadelphia Eagles Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Jake Elliott to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 51 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Jake Elliott has made 6 field goals on 51 attempts, a field goal percentage of 85.7%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Eagles with a Defensive DVOA of -19.5% which ranks at 2/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #29 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 6.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -11.6% DVOA which ranks at #17.
Key Match-ups:
- Davis Mills QB Rating of 81.9 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Pass DVOA Defense of 12.5%
The Eagles have 10 interceptions this year and 23 sacks. They are allowing 16.9 points per game. - Dameon Pierce vs. Philadelphia Eagles number 6 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5.1 yards per carry against the the Philadelphia Eagles and 114.7 per game. - Jalen Hurts QB Rating of 105.1 vs. Houston Texans #29 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Texans defense has allowed 22 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 15 times and picked him off 7 times. - Miles Sanders vs. Houston Texans 7.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Texans are giving up 186 YPG on 5.6 per carry thus far this season.
Eagles/Texans Bettting Stats:
Eagles Against the spread: 5-2-0
Eagles Over/Under: 4-3-0
Texans Against the spread: 3-3-1
Texans Over/Under: 3-4-0
The best bet is Philadelphia Eagles -14 and Under 45.