The 2-5-0 Cleveland Browns host the 4-3-0 Cincinnati Bengals at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. The Browns have a point spread of +4.0 with a money line of 170. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 46.5 points.
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Cincinnati Bengals (-4.0)Record: 4-3-0 |
Cleveland Browns (+4.0)Record: 2-5-0 |
Cleveland Browns Offense:
The Browns are coached by Kevin Stefanski who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 2-5-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kevin Stefanski is no different.
Jacoby Brissett is the quarterback for the Browns. The 30-year-old NC State alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 7 games and thrown for 1584 yards with a completion percentage of 62.7 percent. Jacoby Brissett has thrown 6 touchdowns despite 5 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 82.3.
His main target will be Amari Cooper. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 28-year-old target. He has made 34 receptions to date on 59 targets, a catch percentage of 57.6%, for a total of 422 yards. Amari Cooper is averaging 12.4 yards per catch with 4 touchdowns thus far. Jacoby Brissett will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Browns running game is lead by the 27-year-old Nick Chubb. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 126 carries and rushed for 740 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 105.7 YPG, a number that you know Kevin Stefanski would love to see him exceed in this game. Nick Chubb has 8 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Cleveland Browns offense ranks 8 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 10.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 9 with a Passing DVOA of 5.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 13.7%, ranking #16 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.577 with 15 Red Zone touchdowns in 26 attempts.
Cleveland Browns Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Browns have a Defense DVOA of 10.7%, ranking 28 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #27 at 4.6% and they’ll need them to show up against Joe Burrow. The Kevin Stefanski-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 4.6%, #28 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Cade York who has made 13 of 16 field goals this season, a 81.3% field goal percentage, with a long of 58 yards. The Cleveland Browns fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Cincinnati Bengals Offense:
The Bengals are on the road for this one. Zac Taylor’s squad is 4-3-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2019 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Cincinnati Bengals have a betting line of -4.0 or you could bet them straight up at -195.
26-year-old Joe Burrow will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at LSU. Joe Burrow has a quarterback rating of 102.7 on 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 2097yards, a completion percentage of 68.9.
Joe Mixon is the lead back for the Bengals running game. The 26-year-old has taken 121 carries and rushed for 405 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 57.9 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Joe Burrow will look to target Ja’Marr Chase against the Zac Taylor defense. Ja’Marr Chase has 6 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 74 times and made 47 catches for 605 yards. Ja’Marr Chase has a catch percentage of 63.5% and his yards per reception is 12.9.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Cincinnati Bengals offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 5.2% which ranks at number 13 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 6.0%, the number 8 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 9 with a Rush DVOA total of 21.4%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 14 Red Zone touchdowns on 22 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.636.
Cincinnati Bengals Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Evan McPherson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 59 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Evan McPherson has made 11 field goals on 59 attempts, a field goal percentage of 84.6%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bengals with a Defensive DVOA of -9.5% which ranks at 6/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #27 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 4.6%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -4.9% DVOA which ranks at #28.
Key Match-ups:
- Jacoby Brissett QB Rating of 82.3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Pass DVOA Defense of 6.0%
The Bengals have 5 interceptions this year and 12 sacks. They are allowing 18.9 points per game. - Nick Chubb vs. Cincinnati Bengals number 9 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the the Cincinnati Bengals and 119 per game. - Joe Burrow QB Rating of 102.7 vs. Cleveland Browns #27 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Browns defense has allowed 26.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 14 times and picked him off 2 times. - Joe Mixon vs. Cleveland Browns 15.0% DVOA Rush Defense
The Browns are giving up 135.6 YPG on 4.7 per carry thus far this season.
Bengals/Browns Bettting Stats:
Bengals Against the spread: 5-2-0
Bengals Over/Under: 2-5-0
Browns Against the spread: 3-4-0
Browns Over/Under: 5-2-0
The best bet is Cincinnati Bengals -4.0 and Over 46.5.