The 2-7-0 Carolina Panthers host the 4-5-0 Atlanta Falcons at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Panthers have a point spread of +2.5 with a money line of 125. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42.5 points.
 |
 |
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)Record: 4-5-0 |
Carolina Panthers (+2.5)Record: 2-7-0 |
Carolina Panthers Offense:
The Panthers are coached by Matt Rhule who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 2-7-0 after going 5-12 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt Rhule is no different.
P.J. Walker is the quarterback for the Panthers. The 27-year-old Temple alum entered the league in 2017 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 623 yards with a completion percentage of 58.9 percent. P.J. Walker has thrown 3 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 77.2.
His main target will be D.J. Moore. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 35 receptions to date on 71 targets, a catch percentage of 49.3%, for a total of 449 yards. D.J. Moore is averaging 12.8 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. P.J. Walker will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Panthers running game is lead by the 26-year-old D’Onta Foreman. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 60 carries and rushed for 296 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 32.9 YPG, a number that you know Matt Rhule would love to see him exceed in this game. D’Onta Foreman has 3 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Carolina Panthers offense ranks 31 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -18.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 31 with a Passing DVOA of -14.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -27.0%, ranking #32 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.545 with 12 Red Zone touchdowns in 22 attempts.
Carolina Panthers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Panthers have a Defense DVOA of 10.2%, ranking 28 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #29 at 8.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Marcus Mariota. The Matt Rhule-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 8.4%, #28 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Eddy Pineiro who has made 14 of 16 field goals this season, a 87.5% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Carolina Panthers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Atlanta Falcons Offense:
The Falcons are on the road for this one. Arthur Smith’s squad is 4-5-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Atlanta Falcons have a betting line of -2.5 or you could bet them straight up at -145.
29-year-old Marcus Mariota will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2015 after playing his college days at Oregon. Marcus Mariota has a quarterback rating of 90 on 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He’s started 9 games and thrown for 1561yards, a completion percentage of 61.7.
Cordarrelle Patterson is the lead back for the Falcons running game. The 31-year-old has taken 71 carries and rushed for 384 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 76.8 YPG and he has scored 5 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Marcus Mariota will look to target Drake London against the Arthur Smith defense. Drake London has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 56 times and made 33 catches for 369 yards. Drake London has a catch percentage of 58.9% and his yards per reception is 11.2.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Atlanta Falcons offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 8.3% which ranks at number 8 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 4.3%, the number 11 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 12 with a Rush DVOA total of 15.1%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 15 Red Zone touchdowns on 28 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.536.
Atlanta Falcons Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Younghoe Koo to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 54 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Younghoe Koo has made 15 field goals on 54 attempts, a field goal percentage of 78.9%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Falcons with a Defensive DVOA of 11.4% which ranks at 29/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #29 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 8.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 8.9% DVOA which ranks at #28.
Key Match-ups:
- P.J. Walker QB Rating of 77.2 vs. Atlanta Falcons Pass DVOA Defense of 4.3%
The Falcons have 11 interceptions this year and 23 sacks. They are allowing 14.8 points per game. - D’Onta Foreman vs. Atlanta Falcons number 12 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per carry against the the Atlanta Falcons and 104.9 per game. - Marcus Mariota QB Rating of 90 vs. Carolina Panthers #29 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Panthers defense has allowed 25.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 14 times and picked him off 6 times. - Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Carolina Panthers 18.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Panthers are giving up 139.3 YPG on 4.5 per carry thus far this season.
Falcons/Panthers Bettting Stats:
Falcons Against the spread: 6-3-0
Falcons Over/Under: 5-4-0
Panthers Against the spread: 3-6-0
Panthers Over/Under: 4-5-0
The best bet is Atlanta Falcons -2.5 and Over 42.5.