Dolphins vs. Bears: Week 9 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 2 November 2022

The 3-5-0 Chicago Bears host the 5-3-0 Miami Dolphins at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears have a point spread of +5 with a money line of +190. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 45.5 points.

Miami Dolphins Chicago Bears

Miami Dolphins (-5)

Record: 5-3-0
Points Per Game: 22.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 24

Chicago Bears (+5)

Record: 3-5-0
Points Per Game: 19.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.6

Chicago Bears Offense:

The Bears are coached by Matt Eberflus who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 3-5-0 after going 6-11 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt Eberflus is no different.

Justin Fields is the quarterback for the Bears. The 23-year-old Ohio State alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 8 games and thrown for 1199 yards with a completion percentage of 58.5 percent. Justin Fields has thrown 7 touchdowns despite 6 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 81.2.

His main target will be Darnell Mooney. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 25 receptions to date on 44 targets, a catch percentage of 56.8%, for a total of 364 yards. Darnell Mooney is averaging 14.6 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Justin Fields will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Bears running game is lead by the 25-year-old David Montgomery. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 92 carries and rushed for 361 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 51.6 YPG, a number that you know Matt Eberflus would love to see him exceed in this game. David Montgomery has 2 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Chicago Bears offense ranks 29 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -15.4%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 29 with a Passing DVOA of -12.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -19.0%, ranking #31 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.52 with 13 Red Zone touchdowns in 25 attempts.

Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Bears have a Defense DVOA of 6.8%, ranking 26 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #25 at 4.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Tua Tagovailoa. The Matt Eberflus-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 4.9%, #18 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Cairo Santos who has made 12 of 12 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The Chicago Bears fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Miami Dolphins Offense:

The Dolphins are on the road for this one. Mike McDaniel’s squad is 5-3-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Miami Dolphins have a betting line of -5 or you could bet them straight up at -220.

24-year-old Tua Tagovailoa will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Alabama. Tua Tagovailoa has a quarterback rating of 112.7 on 12 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 1678yards, a completion percentage of 69.9.

Raheem Mostert is the lead back for the Dolphins running game. The 30-year-old has taken 101 carries and rushed for 452 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 56.5 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Tua Tagovailoa will look to target Tyreek Hill against the Mike McDaniel defense. Tyreek Hill has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 92 times and made 69 catches for 961 yards. Tyreek Hill has a catch percentage of 75.0% and his yards per reception is 13.9.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Miami Dolphins offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 14.5% which ranks at number 5 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 9.0%, the number 6 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 3 with a Rush DVOA total of 36.2%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 16 Red Zone touchdowns on 23 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.696.

Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Jason Sanders to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 49 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Jason Sanders has made 11 field goals on 49 attempts, a field goal percentage of 78.6%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Dolphins with a Defensive DVOA of 6.6% which ranks at 25/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #25 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 4.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 5.2% DVOA which ranks at #18.

Key Match-ups:

  • Justin Fields QB Rating of 81.2 vs. Miami Dolphins Pass DVOA Defense of 9.0%
    The Dolphins have 4 interceptions this year and 15 sacks. They are allowing 24 points per game.
  • David Montgomery vs. Miami Dolphins number 3 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.2 yards per carry against the the Miami Dolphins and 100.6 per game.
  • Tua Tagovailoa QB Rating of 112.7 vs. Chicago Bears #25 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Bears defense has allowed 22.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 13 times and picked him off 9 times.
  • Raheem Mostert vs. Chicago Bears 8.2% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Bears are giving up 156 YPG on 5 per carry thus far this season.

Dolphins/Bears Bettting Stats:

Dolphins Against the spread: 4-4-0
Dolphins Over/Under: 3-5-0

Bears Against the spread: 3-4-1
Bears Over/Under: 4-4-0

The best bet is Miami Dolphins -5 and Under 45.5.