Colts vs. Patriots: Week 9 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 2 November 2022

The 4-4-0 New England Patriots host the 3-4-1 Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The Patriots have a point spread of -6 with a money line of -245. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 39 points.

Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots

Indianapolis Colts (+6)

Record: 3-4-1
Points Per Game: 16.1
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.6

New England Patriots (-6)

Record: 4-4-0
Points Per Game: 22.1
Points Allowed Per Game: 20.4

New England Patriots Offense:

The Patriots are coached by Bill Belichick who has been with the team since 2000. They have a current season record of 4-4-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Bill Belichick is no different.

Bailey Zappe is the quarterback for the Patriots. The 23-year-old Western Kentucky alum entered the league in 2022 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 781 yards with a completion percentage of 70.7 percent. Bailey Zappe has thrown 5 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 100.9.

His main target will be Jakobi Meyers. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 35 receptions to date on 45 targets, a catch percentage of 77.8%, for a total of 415 yards. Jakobi Meyers is averaging 11.9 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Bailey Zappe will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Patriots running game is lead by the 24-year-old Rhamondre Stevenson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 114 carries and rushed for 558 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 69.8 YPG, a number that you know Bill Belichick would love to see him exceed in this game. Rhamondre Stevenson has 4 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the New England Patriots offense ranks 24 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -10.4%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 22 with a Passing DVOA of -5.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -2.5%, ranking #25 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.458 with 11 Red Zone touchdowns in 24 attempts.

New England Patriots Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Patriots have a Defense DVOA of -8.7%, ranking 6 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #8 at -3.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Matt Ryan. The Bill Belichick-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -3.9%, #5 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Nick Folk who has made 15 of 17 field goals this season, a 88.2% field goal percentage, with a long of 52 yards. The New England Patriots fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Indianapolis Colts Offense:

The Colts are on the road for this one. Frank Reich’s squad is 3-4-1 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2018 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Indianapolis Colts have a betting line of +6 or you could bet them straight up at +205.

37-year-old Matt Ryan will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2008 after playing his college days at Boston College. Matt Ryan has a quarterback rating of 84.7 on 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 2008yards, a completion percentage of 68.4.

Jonathan Taylor is the lead back for the Colts running game. The 23-year-old has taken 107 carries and rushed for 462 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 77 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.

On the passing front, Matt Ryan will look to target Michael Pittman Jr. against the Frank Reich defense. Michael Pittman Jr. has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 70 times and made 51 catches for 528 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. has a catch percentage of 72.9% and his yards per reception is 10.4.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Indianapolis Colts offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -25.3% which ranks at number 32 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -18.6%, the number 32 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 30 with a Rush DVOA total of -18.1%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 11 Red Zone touchdowns on 23 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.478.

Indianapolis Colts Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Rodrigo Blankenship to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 50 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Rodrigo Blankenship has made 4 field goals on 50 attempts, a field goal percentage of 80.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Colts with a Defensive DVOA of -0.7% which ranks at 14/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #8 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -3.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.7% DVOA which ranks at #5.

Key Match-ups:

  • Bailey Zappe QB Rating of 100.9 vs. Indianapolis Colts Pass DVOA Defense of -18.6%
    The Colts have 4 interceptions this year and 19 sacks. They are allowing 19.6 points per game.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Indianapolis Colts number 30 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4 yards per carry against the the Indianapolis Colts and 120 per game.
  • Matt Ryan QB Rating of 84.7 vs. New England Patriots #8 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Patriots defense has allowed 20.4 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 23 times and picked him off 10 times.
  • Jonathan Taylor vs. New England Patriots -17.0% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Patriots are giving up 126 YPG on 4.8 per carry thus far this season.

Colts/Patriots Bettting Stats:

Colts Against the spread: 3-5-0
Colts Over/Under: 1-7-0

Patriots Against the spread: 4-3-1
Patriots Over/Under: 4-4-0

The best bet is New England Patriots -6 and Under 39.