Bills vs. Jets: Week 9 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 2 November 2022

The 5-3-0 New York Jets host the 6-1-0 Buffalo Bills at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Jets have a point spread of +13 with a money line of +500. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 47 points.

Buffalo Bills New York Jets

Buffalo Bills (-13)

Record: 6-1-0
Points Per Game: 29
Points Allowed Per Game: 14

New York Jets (+13)

Record: 5-3-0
Points Per Game: 22
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.9

New York Jets Offense:

The Jets are coached by Robert Saleh who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 5-3-0 after going 4-13 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Robert Saleh is no different.

Zach Wilson is the quarterback for the Jets. The 23-year-old BYU alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 5 games and thrown for 1048 yards with a completion percentage of 54.9 percent. Zach Wilson has thrown 3 touchdowns despite 5 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 71.

His main target will be Elijah Moore. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 22-year-old target. He has made 16 receptions to date on 30 targets, a catch percentage of 53.3%, for a total of 203 yards. Elijah Moore is averaging 12.7 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Zach Wilson will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Jets running game is lead by the 21-year-old Breece Hall. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 80 carries and rushed for 463 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 66.1 YPG, a number that you know Robert Saleh would love to see him exceed in this game. Breece Hall has 4 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the New York Jets offense ranks 21 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -5.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 23 with a Passing DVOA of -5.3%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 1.1%, ranking #21 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.609 with 14 Red Zone touchdowns in 23 attempts.

New York Jets Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Jets have a Defense DVOA of -6.8%, ranking 8 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #5 at -5.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Josh Allen. The Robert Saleh-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -5.5%, #8 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Greg Zuerlein who has made 14 of 17 field goals this season, a 82.4% field goal percentage, with a long of 57 yards. The New York Jets fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Buffalo Bills Offense:

The Bills are on the road for this one. Sean McDermott’s squad is 6-1-0 this season after going 11-6 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Buffalo Bills have a betting line of -13 or you could bet them straight up at -650.

26-year-old Josh Allen will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2018 after playing his college days at Wyoming. Josh Allen has a quarterback rating of 105.9 on 19 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 2198yards, a completion percentage of 65.5.

Devin Singletary is the lead back for the Bills running game. The 25-year-old has taken 71 carries and rushed for 323 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 46.1 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Josh Allen will look to target Stefon Diggs against the Sean McDermott defense. Stefon Diggs has 7 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 73 times and made 55 catches for 764 yards. Stefon Diggs has a catch percentage of 75.3% and his yards per reception is 13.9.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Buffalo Bills offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 15.4% which ranks at number 4 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 12.8%, the number 2 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 2 with a Rush DVOA total of 38.4%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 14 Red Zone touchdowns on 26 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.538.

Buffalo Bills Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Tyler Bass to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 49 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Tyler Bass has made 11 field goals on 49 attempts, a field goal percentage of 84.6%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bills with a Defensive DVOA of -17.6% which ranks at 4/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #5 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -5.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -10.5% DVOA which ranks at #8.

Key Match-ups:

  • Zach Wilson QB Rating of 71 vs. Buffalo Bills Pass DVOA Defense of 12.8%
    The Bills have 11 interceptions this year and 21 sacks. They are allowing 14 points per game.
  • Breece Hall vs. Buffalo Bills number 2 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.1 yards per carry against the the Buffalo Bills and 95 per game.
  • Josh Allen QB Rating of 105.9 vs. New York Jets #5 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Jets defense has allowed 19.9 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 21 times and picked him off 9 times.
  • Devin Singletary vs. New York Jets -3.8% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Jets are giving up 108 YPG on 3.8 per carry thus far this season.

Bills/Jets Bettting Stats:

Bills Against the spread: 4-3-0
Bills Over/Under: 1-6-0

Jets Against the spread: 5-3-0
Jets Over/Under: 3-5-0

The best bet is New York Jets +13 and Under 47.