The 5-2-0 New York Jets host the 3-4-0 New England Patriots at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Jets have a point spread of +1.5 with a money line of 110. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 40.5 points.
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New England Patriots (-1.5)Record: 3-4-0 |
New York Jets (+1.5)Record: 5-2-0 |
New York Jets Offense:
The Jets are coached by Robert Saleh who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 5-2-0 after going 4-13 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Robert Saleh is no different.
Zach Wilson is the quarterback for the Jets. The 23-year-old BYU alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 693 yards with a completion percentage of 57.4 percent. Zach Wilson has thrown 1 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 73.6.
His main target will be Elijah Moore. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 22-year-old target. He has made 16 receptions to date on 29 targets, a catch percentage of 55.2%, for a total of 203 yards. Elijah Moore is averaging 12.7 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Zach Wilson will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Jets running game is lead by the 21-year-old Breece Hall. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 80 carries and rushed for 463 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 66.1 YPG, a number that you know Robert Saleh would love to see him exceed in this game. Breece Hall has 4 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the New York Jets offense ranks 21 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -3.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 24 with a Passing DVOA of -5.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 0.6%, ranking #23 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.6 with 12 Red Zone touchdowns in 20 attempts.
New York Jets Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Jets have a Defense DVOA of -2.9%, ranking 10 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #9 at -3.1% and they’ll need them to show up against Bailey Zappe. The Robert Saleh-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -3.1%, #10 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Greg Zuerlein who has made 13 of 15 field goals this season, a 86.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 57 yards. The New York Jets fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
New England Patriots Offense:
The Patriots are on the road for this one. Bill Belichick’s squad is 3-4-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2000 and is looking to grab a road win here. The New England Patriots have a betting line of -1.5 or you could bet them straight up at -130.
23-year-old Bailey Zappe will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2022 after playing his college days at Western Kentucky. Bailey Zappe has a quarterback rating of 100.9 on 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 781yards, a completion percentage of 70.7.
Rhamondre Stevenson is the lead back for the Patriots running game. The 24-year-old has taken 98 carries and rushed for 487 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 69.6 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Bailey Zappe will look to target Jakobi Meyers against the Bill Belichick defense. Jakobi Meyers has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 33 times and made 26 catches for 355 yards. Jakobi Meyers has a catch percentage of 78.8% and his yards per reception is 13.7.
According to FootballOutsiders, the New England Patriots offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -7.1% which ranks at number 23 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -3.1%, the number 22 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 22 with a Rush DVOA total of 2.6%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 10 Red Zone touchdowns on 21 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.476.
New England Patriots Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Nick Folk to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 50 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Nick Folk has made 10 field goals on 50 attempts, a field goal percentage of 83.3%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Patriots with a Defensive DVOA of -5.4% which ranks at 9/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #9 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -3.1%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -1.5% DVOA which ranks at #10.
Key Match-ups:
- Zach Wilson QB Rating of 73.6 vs. New England Patriots Pass DVOA Defense of -3.1%
The Patriots have 7 interceptions this year and 21 sacks. They are allowing 20.9 points per game. - Breece Hall vs. New England Patriots number 22 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.9 yards per carry against the the New England Patriots and 136.7 per game. - Bailey Zappe QB Rating of 100.9 vs. New York Jets #9 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Jets defense has allowed 19.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 15 times and picked him off 8 times. - Rhamondre Stevenson vs. New York Jets 0.4% DVOA Rush Defense
The Jets are giving up 105.3 YPG on 3.9 per carry thus far this season.
Patriots/Jets Bettting Stats:
Patriots Against the spread: 3-3-1
Patriots Over/Under: 4-3-0
Jets Against the spread: 5-2-0
Jets Over/Under: 3-4-0
The best bet is New York Jets +1.5 and Under 40.5.